Paylocity Holding Corporation (PCTY) Fair Value 2026

PCTY · Services-Prepackaged Software ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

10.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Paylocity Holding Corporation (PCTY) trades at $124.50, approximately 7% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $134.07. QOC: 10.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
PCTY
Price
$124.50
Quality Score
10.0/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +46.5% upside with 57% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($124.50)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $134.07 +7.7%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $33.09 -73.4%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $109.57 -12.0%
First Chicago
High Conviction
 $182.36 +46.5%

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What Is Paylocity Holding Corporation (PCTY) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Paylocity Holding Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $126.65. Trading at $124.50, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of +1.7%), as 8 of 12 models suggest limited further upside. Model dispersion is worth noting: Markov DDM targets $370.98 (+198.0%), versus EPV at $33.09 (-73.4%). This +271.4% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About PCTY?

12 of 13 models are currently active for PCTY. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates PCTY's intrinsic value at $134.07, implying +7.7% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does PCTY Rank in Services-Prepackaged Software?

Among 208 Services-Prepackaged Software stocks, PCTY ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 10.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 10.0 places PCTY in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Services-Prepackaged Software Stocks →

Paylocity Holding Corporation's positioning within the Services-Prepackaged Software segment means that R&D intensity plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including AI/ML integration — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is PCTY a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns PCTY a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Paylocity Holding Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Paylocity Holding Corporation earns a quality score of 10.0/10. This exceptional rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +271.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every PCTY valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across PCTY's 12 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Paylocity Holding Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Services-Prepackaged Software Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Services-Prepackaged Software stocks with 13-model coverage

CRMSalesforce, Inc.QOC 10.0CVLTCommvault Systems, Inc.QOC 10.0EGANeGain CorporationQOC 10.0MANHManhattan Associates, Inc.QOC 10.0MSFTMicrosoft CorporationQOC 10.0NTESNetEase, Inc.QOC 10.0VEEVVeeva Systems Inc.QOC 10.0SPSCSPS Commerce, Inc.QOC 9.8

Read investment analysis: CRM · CVLT · EGAN · MANH · MSFT

See all Services-Prepackaged Software stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Paylocity Holding Corporation

What is Paylocity Holding Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Paylocity Holding Corporation (PCTY) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $134.07. The Quality of Company score is 10.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is PCTY overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $124.50, 4 of 12 active models suggest PCTY may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Paylocity Holding Corporation's business model in Services-Prepackaged Software.

What does a Quality of Company score of 10.0 mean for PCTY?

Paylocity Holding Corporation's QOC of 10.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on PCTY?

CirclFi analyzes PCTY with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is PCTY a value trap in 2026?

Paylocity Holding Corporation's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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