Paylocity Holding Corporation (PCTY) Fair Value 2026

PCTY · Software - Application ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (29/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Paylocity Holding Corporation (PCTY) trades at $158.15, versus a $178.57 median fair value across its 10 active models — 12.9% above the current price. QOC: 9.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 29/100 (LOW). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $270.78.

Key Facts

Ticker
PCTY
Price
$158.15
Quality Score
9.6/10
Value Trap Risk
29/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +71.2% upside with 72% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (10/13) may reduce confidence

Is Paylocity Holding Corporation (PCTY) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Paylocity Holding Corporation (PCTY) appears undervalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $178.57, 12.9% above the current price of $158.15. Estimates range from $53.75 to $349.80. PCTY scores 9.6/10 on fundamental quality and 29/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. PCTY’s +12.9% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Software - Application sector median is -23.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Paylocity Holding Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give PCTY?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($158.15)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $270.78 +71.2%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $182.56 +15.4%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $219.71 +38.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $53.75 -66.0%
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What Is PCTY's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $53.75 to $349.80

CirclFi's 10 active models place Paylocity Holding Corporation (PCTY) between $53.75 and $349.80 per share, a spread of 166% of the median. The median of that range — $178.57 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for PCTY, against a current price of $158.15.

Low · EROICHigh · Markov DDM
$53.75median $178.57$349.80
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$53.75
Most bullish modelMarkov DDM$349.80
Model agreement6 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for PCTY. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on PCTY, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Paylocity Holding Corporation (PCTY) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Paylocity Holding Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $178.57, suggesting a +12.9% median upside from the current price of $158.15. While 6 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 3 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: Markov DDM targets $349.80 (+121.2%), versus EROIC at $53.75 (-66.0%). This +187.2% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About PCTY?

10 of 13 models are currently active for PCTY. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for PCTY is $178.57 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $270.78 on its own, implying +71.2% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does PCTY Rank in Software - Application?

Among 256 Software - Application stocks, PCTY ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.6 places PCTY in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Application Stocks →

Paylocity Holding Corporation's positioning within the Software - Application segment means that R&D intensity plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including AI/ML integration — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is PCTY a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns PCTY a score of 29/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Paylocity Holding Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Paylocity Holding Corporation earns a quality score of 9.6/10. This exceptional rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +187.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every PCTY valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across PCTY's 10 active models, average confidence is 50%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Paylocity Holding Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Application Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Software - Application stocks with 13-model coverage

ZMZoom Communications, Inc.QOC 9.6MANHManhattan Associates, Inc.QOC 9.6PAYCPaycom Software, Inc.QOC 9.7IDCCInterDigital, Inc.QOC 9.5PTCPTC Inc.QOC 9.8CRMSalesforce, Inc.QOC 9.4GRNDGrindr Inc.QOC 8.0NXTTNext Technology Holding Inc.QOC 6.6TONXTON Strategy CoQOC 4.8ADSKAutodesk, Inc.QOC 9.8

Read investment analysis: ZM · MANH · PAYC · IDCC · PTC · CRM · GRND · NXTT · TONX · ADSK

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to PCTY?

7 companies across all industries closest to PCTY’s Quality of Company score of 9.6/10.

OMABGrupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte, S.A.B. de C.V.QOC 9.6NVMINova Ltd.QOC 9.6CRDOCredo Technology Group Holding LtdQOC 9.6DOCSDoximity, Inc.QOC 9.6PODDInsulet CorporationQOC 9.6DECKDeckers Outdoor CorporationQOC 9.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: OMAB · NVMI · CRDO · DOCS · PODD · DECK · NVDA

Where Does PCTY Sit in CirclFi's Software - Application Rankings?

PCTY is ranked against every other Software - Application stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Application stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Paylocity Holding Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Paylocity Holding Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Paylocity Holding Corporation (PCTY)'s intrinsic value at $178.57 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $53.75 to $349.80. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $270.78 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is PCTY overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $158.15, 6 of 10 active models suggest PCTY may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $178.57, 12.9% above the current price of $158.15 — a consensus view that PCTY is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Paylocity Holding Corporation's business model in Software - Application.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.6 mean for PCTY?

Paylocity Holding Corporation's QOC of 9.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on PCTY?

CirclFi analyzes PCTY with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on PCTY?

Of the 10 models currently active on PCTY, Markov DDM is the most bullish at $349.80 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $53.75. CirclFi's published fair value for PCTY is the median of that range, $178.57, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 166% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is PCTY a value trap in 2026?

Paylocity Holding Corporation's Value Trap score is 29/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Paylocity Holding Corporation (PCTY) has a median fair value of $178.57 — 12.9% above the current price of $158.15 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/PCTY/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this PCTY valuation
  • Financial statements: Paylocity Holding Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001591698) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for PCTY as of ; valuations recomputed .

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