Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON) Fair Value 2026

AXON · Aerospace & Defense ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 3 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (19/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON) trades at $611.20, versus a $100.75 median fair value across its 3 active models — 83.5% below the current price. QOC: 8.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 19/100 (SAFE). 3/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AXON
Price
$611.20
Quality Score
8.5/10
Value Trap Risk
19/100
Models Active
3/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.5/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON) appears overvalued as of : the median of 3 independent fair value estimates is $100.75, 83.5% below the current price of $611.20. Estimates range from $10.90 to $464.61. AXON scores 8.5/10 on fundamental quality and 19/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. AXON’s -83.5% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Aerospace & Defense sector median is -23.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Axon Enterprise, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give AXON?

3 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($611.20)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Relative · High Conviction
 $464.61 -24.0%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $100.75 -83.5%
Intrinsic · Low Conviction
 $10.90 -98.2%

All Models Active

All 3 models are displayed above.

What Is AXON's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 3 independent models · $10.90 to $464.61

CirclFi's 3 active models place Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON) between $10.90 and $464.61 per share, a spread of 450% of the median. The median of that range — $100.75 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for AXON, against a current price of $611.20.

Low · RCMH-DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$10.90median $100.75$464.61
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRCMH-DCF$10.90
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$464.61
Model agreement0 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for AXON. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on AXON, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Axon Enterprise, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $100.75. Trading at its current price of $611.20, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 3 of 3 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -83.5%. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at -24.0% (fair value: $464.61), while RCMH-DCF is the most conservative at -98.2% ($10.90). The spread between these extremes — +74.2% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About AXON?

3 of 13 models are currently active for AXON. All 3 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for AXON is $100.75 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AXON Rank in Aerospace & Defense?

Among 92 Aerospace & Defense stocks, AXON ranks #14 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.5 places AXON in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Aerospace & Defense Stocks →

The Aerospace & Defense sector introduces analytical considerations specific to defense contractor businesses. For Axon Enterprise, Inc., metrics like commercial deliveries provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is AXON a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AXON a score of 19/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

3 of 13 models are active for Axon Enterprise, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Axon Enterprise, Inc. scores 8.5 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +74.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AXON valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AXON's 3 active models, average confidence is 23%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Axon Enterprise, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Aerospace & Defense Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Aerospace & Defense stocks with 13-model coverage

RTXRTX CorporationQOC 8.5BWXTBWX Technologies, Inc.QOC 8.4CODACoda Octopus Group, Inc.QOC 8.6GDGeneral Dynamics CorporationQOC 8.4NOCNorthrop Grumman CorporationQOC 8.6PKEPark Aerospace Corp.QOC 8.4MRCYMercury Systems, Inc.QOC 7.3VOYGVoyager Technologies, Inc.QOC 5.5BRQLDynamic Aerospace SystemsQOC 3.8BUKSButler National CorporationQOC 9.4HWMHowmet Aerospace Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: RTX · BWXT · CODA · GD · NOC · PKE · MRCY · VOYG · BRQL · BUKS · HWM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to AXON?

7 companies across all industries closest to AXON’s Quality of Company score of 8.5/10.

RSSSResearch Solutions, Inc.QOC 8.5STNStantec Inc.QOC 8.5HBTHBT Financial, Inc.QOC 8.5CSCOCisco Systems, Inc.QOC 8.5WLDNWilldan Group, Inc.QOC 8.5CIGCompanhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIGQOC 8.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: RSSS · STN · HBT · CSCO · WLDN · CIG · NVDA

Where Does AXON Sit in CirclFi's Aerospace & Defense Rankings?

AXON is ranked against every other Aerospace & Defense stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Aerospace & Defense stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Axon Enterprise, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Axon Enterprise, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON)'s intrinsic value at $100.75 — the median of 3 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $10.90 to $464.61. The Quality of Company score is 8.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AXON overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $611.20, 0 of 3 active models suggest AXON may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 3 fair value estimates is $100.75, 83.5% below the current price of $611.20 — a consensus view that AXON is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Axon Enterprise, Inc.'s business model in Aerospace & Defense.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.5 mean for AXON?

Axon Enterprise, Inc.'s QOC of 8.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AXON?

CirclFi analyzes AXON with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 3 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on AXON?

Of the 3 models currently active on AXON, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $464.61 per share, and RCMH-DCF is the most bearish at $10.90. CirclFi's published fair value for AXON is the median of that range, $100.75, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 450% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is AXON a value trap in 2026?

Axon Enterprise, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 19/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON) has a median fair value of $100.75 — 83.5% below the current price of $611.20 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AXON/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this AXON valuation
  • Financial statements: Axon Enterprise, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001069183) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for AXON as of ; valuations recomputed .