Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc. (RGR) Fair Value 2026

RGR · Aerospace & Defense ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (21/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc. (RGR) trades at $37.76, versus a $36.33 median fair value across its 10 active models — 3.8% below the current price. QOC: 6.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 21/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $39.43.

Key Facts

Ticker
RGR
Price
$37.76
Quality Score
6.9/10
Value Trap Risk
21/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +4.4% upside with 64% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (10/13) may reduce confidence

Is Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc. (RGR) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc. (RGR) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $36.33, within 3.8% of the current price of $37.76. Estimates range from $12.39 to $82.42. RGR scores 6.9/10 on fundamental quality and 21/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. RGR’s -3.8% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Aerospace & Defense sector median is -23.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give RGR?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($37.76)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $39.43 +4.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $39.20 +3.8%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $33.14 -12.2%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $34.25 -9.3%
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What Is RGR's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $12.39 to $82.42

CirclFi's 10 active models place Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc. (RGR) between $12.39 and $82.42 per share, a spread of 193% of the median. The median of that range — $36.33 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for RGR, against a current price of $37.76.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$12.39median $36.33$82.42
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$12.39
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$82.42
Model agreement2 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for RGR. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on RGR, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc. (RGR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $36.33, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $37.76. With a median implied return of -3.8% across a split 2–5 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +185.5% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +118.3% (fair value: $82.42), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -67.2% ($12.39). The spread between these extremes — +185.5% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About RGR?

10 of 13 models are currently active for RGR. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for RGR is $36.33 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $39.43 on its own, implying +4.4% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does RGR Rank in Aerospace & Defense?

Among 92 Aerospace & Defense stocks, RGR ranks #40 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.9 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Aerospace & Defense Stocks →

As a defense contractor, Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc. operates in a sector where program execution margin is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating RGR should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is RGR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns RGR a score of 21/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc. is rated at 6.9/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +185.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every RGR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across RGR's 10 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Aerospace & Defense Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Aerospace & Defense stocks with 13-model coverage

DCODucommun IncorporatedQOC 7.0KRMNKarman Holdings Inc.QOC 6.9RKLBRocket Lab CorporationQOC 7.0AVAVAeroVironment, Inc.QOC 6.8MRCYMercury Systems, Inc.QOC 7.3RDWRedwire CorporationQOC 6.7MOBMobilicom LimitedQOC 5.2YSSYork Space Systems, Inc.QOC 3.6PKEPark Aerospace Corp.QOC 8.4BUKSButler National CorporationQOC 9.4HWMHowmet Aerospace Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: DCO · KRMN · RKLB · AVAV · MRCY · RDW · MOB · YSS · PKE · BUKS · HWM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to RGR?

7 companies across all industries closest to RGR’s Quality of Company score of 6.9/10.

VHIValhi, Inc.QOC 6.9SABRSabre CorporationQOC 6.9WSBFWaterstone Financial, Inc.QOC 6.9SACHSachem Capital Corp.QOC 6.9AVBHAvidbank Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.9BLFSBioLife Solutions, Inc.QOC 6.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: VHI · SABR · WSBF · SACH · AVBH · BLFS · NVDA

Where Does RGR Sit in CirclFi's Aerospace & Defense Rankings?

RGR is ranked against every other Aerospace & Defense stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Aerospace & Defense stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc. (RGR)'s intrinsic value at $36.33 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $12.39 to $82.42. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $39.43 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is RGR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $37.76, 5 of 10 active models suggest RGR may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $36.33, within 3.8% of the current price of $37.76 — a consensus view that RGR is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc.'s business model in Aerospace & Defense.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.9 mean for RGR?

Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc.'s QOC of 6.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on RGR?

CirclFi analyzes RGR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on RGR?

Of the 10 models currently active on RGR, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $82.42 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $12.39. CirclFi's published fair value for RGR is the median of that range, $36.33, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 193% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is RGR a value trap in 2026?

Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 21/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc. (RGR) has a median fair value of $36.33 — within 3.8% of the current price of $37.76 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/RGR/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this RGR valuation
  • Financial statements: Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000095029) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for RGR as of ; valuations recomputed .

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