What Is AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, AeroVironment, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $55.70. Trading at its current price of $143.47, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 10 of 12 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -61.2%. Model dispersion is worth noting: FTNN targets $150.60 (+5.0%), versus ML-RIV at $8.28 (-94.2%). This +99.2% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, Markov DDM lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.
What Do the Models Say About AVAV?
12 of 13 models are currently active for AVAV. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates AVAV's intrinsic value at $22.17, implying -84.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does AVAV Rank in Aircraft?
Among 12 Aircraft stocks, AVAV ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.8 indicates above-average quality.
AeroVironment, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.
Is AVAV a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AVAV a score of 37/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
12 of 13 models are active for AeroVironment, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, AeroVironment, Inc. scores 6.8 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +99.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every AVAV valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across AVAV's 12 active models, average confidence is 32%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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