AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) Fair Value 2026

AVAV · Aerospace & Defense ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 2 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (53/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) trades at $147.94, versus a $188.23 median fair value across its 2 active models — 27.2% above the current price. QOC: 6.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 53/100 (WARN). 2/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AVAV
Price
$147.94
Quality Score
6.8/10
Value Trap Risk
53/100
Models Active
2/13
Last Updated
Strength: Regime Cross-Sectional suggests +31.0% upside with 47% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 53 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) appears undervalued as of : the median of 2 independent fair value estimates is $188.23, 27.2% above the current price of $147.94. Estimates range from $182.67 to $193.79. AVAV scores 6.8/10 on fundamental quality and 53/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. AVAV’s +27.2% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Aerospace & Defense sector median is -32.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy AeroVironment, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give AVAV?

2 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($147.94)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $193.79 +31.0%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $182.67 +23.5%

All Models Active

All 2 models are displayed above.

What Is AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, AeroVironment, Inc. is potentially undervalued at its current price of $147.94. Based on our 13-model framework, AeroVironment, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $188.23 — representing +27.2% implied upside — with 2 out of 2 active models confirming this thesis.

What Do the Models Say About AVAV?

2 of 13 models are currently active for AVAV. All 2 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for AVAV is $188.23 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AVAV Rank in Aerospace & Defense?

Among 94 Aerospace & Defense stocks, AVAV ranks #43 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.8 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Aerospace & Defense Stocks →

The Aerospace & Defense sector introduces analytical considerations specific to aerospace company businesses. For AeroVironment, Inc., metrics like program execution margin provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is AVAV a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AVAV a score of 53/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

2 of 13 models are active for AeroVironment, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, AeroVironment, Inc. scores 6.8 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

Models cluster within a tight range (+7.5% spread), increasing conviction. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AVAV valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AVAV's 2 active models, average confidence is 27%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy AeroVironment, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Aerospace & Defense Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Aerospace & Defense stocks with 13-model coverage

KRMNKarman Holdings Inc.QOC 6.9RDWRedwire CorporationQOC 6.7RGRSturm, Ruger & Company, Inc.QOC 6.9EHEHang Holdings LimitedQOC 6.5DCODucommun IncorporatedQOC 7.0AIROAIRO Group Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.5SIDUSidus Space, Inc.QOC 5.2KITTNauticus Robotics, Inc.QOC 3.5ATROAstronics CorporationQOC 8.4BUKSButler National CorporationQOC 9.4HWMHowmet Aerospace Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: KRMN · RDW · RGR · EH · DCO · AIRO · SIDU · KITT · ATRO · BUKS · HWM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to AVAV?

7 companies across all industries closest to AVAV’s Quality of Company score of 6.8/10.

NVTSNavitas Semiconductor CorporationQOC 6.8WIMIWiMi Hologram Cloud Inc.QOC 6.8VSHVishay Intertechnology, Inc.QOC 6.8WTTRSelect Water Solutions, Inc.QOC 6.8NXQuanex Building Products CorporationQOC 6.8BSACBanco Santander-ChileQOC 6.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: NVTS · WIMI · VSH · WTTR · NX · BSAC · NVDA

Where Does AVAV Sit in CirclFi's Aerospace & Defense Rankings?

AVAV is ranked against every other Aerospace & Defense stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Aerospace & Defense stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About AeroVironment, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is AeroVironment, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV)'s intrinsic value at $188.23 — the median of 2 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $182.67 to $193.79. The Quality of Company score is 6.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AVAV overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $147.94, 2 of 2 active models suggest AVAV may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 2 fair value estimates is $188.23, 27.2% above the current price of $147.94 — a consensus view that AVAV is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits AeroVironment, Inc.'s business model in Aerospace & Defense.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.8 mean for AVAV?

AeroVironment, Inc.'s QOC of 6.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AVAV?

CirclFi analyzes AVAV with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 2 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is AVAV a value trap in 2026?

AeroVironment, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 53/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) has a median fair value of $188.23 — 27.2% above the current price of $147.94 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AVAV/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this AVAV valuation
  • Financial statements: AeroVironment, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001368622) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for AVAV as of ; valuations recomputed .