New Horizon Aircraft Ltd. (HOVR) Fair Value 2026

HOVR · Aerospace & Defense ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (47/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, New Horizon Aircraft Ltd. (HOVR) trades at $1.77, versus a $0.49 median fair value across its 5 active models — 72.4% below the current price. QOC: 5.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 47/100 (WARN). 5/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $0.33.

Key Facts

Ticker
HOVR
Price
$1.77
Quality Score
5.1/10
Value Trap Risk
47/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: 5 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Value Trap score of 47 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is New Horizon Aircraft Ltd. (HOVR) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, New Horizon Aircraft Ltd. (HOVR) appears overvalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $0.49, 72.4% below the current price of $1.77. Estimates range from $0.14 to $2.46. HOVR scores 5.1/10 on fundamental quality and 47/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. HOVR’s -72.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Aerospace & Defense sector median is -32.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy New Horizon Aircraft Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give HOVR?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($1.77)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Low Conviction
 $0.33 -81.2%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $0.63 -64.5%
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What Is HOVR's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $0.14 to $2.46

CirclFi's 5 active models place New Horizon Aircraft Ltd. (HOVR) between $0.14 and $2.46 per share, a spread of 474% of the median. The median of that range — $0.49 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for HOVR, against a current price of $1.77.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · Regime Cross
$0.14median $0.49$2.46
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$0.14
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$2.46
Model agreement1 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for HOVR. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on HOVR, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is New Horizon Aircraft Ltd. (HOVR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, New Horizon Aircraft Ltd.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $0.49, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $1.77. With 4 out of 5 models flagging downside (-72.4% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +39.1% (fair value: $2.46), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -91.9% ($0.14). The spread between these extremes — +131.0% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About HOVR?

5 of 13 models are currently active for HOVR. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for HOVR is $0.49 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $0.33 on its own, implying -81.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HOVR Rank in Aerospace & Defense?

Among 94 Aerospace & Defense stocks, HOVR ranks #67 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.1 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Aerospace & Defense Stocks →

As a defense contractor, New Horizon Aircraft Ltd. operates in a sector where commercial deliveries is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating HOVR should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is HOVR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HOVR a score of 47/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for New Horizon Aircraft Ltd.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, New Horizon Aircraft Ltd.'s fundamental quality profile registers 5.1/10. This mixed score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +131.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HOVR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HOVR's 5 active models, average confidence is 20%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy New Horizon Aircraft Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Aerospace & Defense Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Aerospace & Defense stocks with 13-model coverage

SIDUSidus Space, Inc.QOC 5.2MRLNMerlin, Inc.QOC 5.1MOBMobilicom LimitedQOC 5.2ARXSArxis, Inc.QOC 5.0EVTLVertical Aerospace Ltd.QOC 5.3LUNRIntuitive Machines, Inc.QOC 5.0KITTNauticus Robotics, Inc.QOC 3.5TXTTextron Inc.QOC 8.3AVAVAeroVironment, Inc.QOC 6.8BUKSButler National CorporationQOC 9.4HWMHowmet Aerospace Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: SIDU · MRLN · MOB · ARXS · EVTL · LUNR · KITT · TXT · AVAV · BUKS · HWM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to HOVR?

7 companies across all industries closest to HOVR’s Quality of Company score of 5.1/10.

AMLXAmylyx Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 5.1AIRJAirJoule Technologies CorporationQOC 5.1BETRBetter Home & Finance Holding CompanyQOC 5.1AZIOAzio AI Holdings, Inc.QOC 5.1TGHLThe Growhub LimitedQOC 5.1GGTThe Gabelli Multimedia Trust Inc.QOC 5.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: AMLX · AIRJ · BETR · AZIO · TGHL · GGT · NVDA

Where Does HOVR Sit in CirclFi's Aerospace & Defense Rankings?

HOVR is ranked against every other Aerospace & Defense stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Aerospace & Defense stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About New Horizon Aircraft Ltd.’s Valuation?

What is New Horizon Aircraft Ltd.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts New Horizon Aircraft Ltd. (HOVR)'s intrinsic value at $0.49 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $0.14 to $2.46. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $0.33 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 5.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HOVR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $1.77, 1 of 5 active models suggest HOVR may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $0.49, 72.4% below the current price of $1.77 — a consensus view that HOVR is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits New Horizon Aircraft Ltd.'s business model in Aerospace & Defense.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.1 mean for HOVR?

New Horizon Aircraft Ltd.'s QOC of 5.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HOVR?

CirclFi analyzes HOVR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on HOVR?

Of the 5 models currently active on HOVR, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $2.46 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $0.14. CirclFi's published fair value for HOVR is the median of that range, $0.49, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 474% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is HOVR a value trap in 2026?

New Horizon Aircraft Ltd.'s Value Trap score is 47/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, New Horizon Aircraft Ltd. (HOVR) has a median fair value of $0.49 — 72.4% below the current price of $1.77 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/HOVR/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this HOVR valuation
  • Financial statements: New Horizon Aircraft Ltd. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001930021) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for HOVR as of ; valuations recomputed .

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