Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN) Fair Value 2026

KRMN · Aerospace & Defense ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (17/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN) trades at $47.42, versus a $20.95 median fair value across its 5 active models — 55.8% below the current price. QOC: 6.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 17/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
KRMN
Price
$47.42
Quality Score
6.9/10
Value Trap Risk
17/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: 5 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN) appears overvalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $20.95, 55.8% below the current price of $47.42. Estimates range from $11.01 to $41.25. KRMN scores 6.9/10 on fundamental quality and 17/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. KRMN’s -55.8% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Aerospace & Defense sector median is -23.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Karman Holdings Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give KRMN?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($47.42)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $20.95 -55.8%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $21.34 -55.0%
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What Is KRMN's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $11.01 to $41.25

CirclFi's 5 active models place Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN) between $11.01 and $41.25 per share, a spread of 144% of the median. The median of that range — $20.95 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for KRMN, against a current price of $47.42.

Low · FTNNHigh · Regime Cross
$11.01median $20.95$41.25
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelFTNN Topology$11.01
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$41.25
Model agreement0 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for KRMN. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on KRMN, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Karman Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $20.95. Trading at its current price of $47.42, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 5 of 5 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -55.8%. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $41.25 (-13.0%), while FTNN — the most conservative — estimates $11.01 (-76.8%). This +63.8% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Karman Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About KRMN?

5 of 13 models are currently active for KRMN. All 5 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for KRMN is $20.95 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does KRMN Rank in Aerospace & Defense?

Among 92 Aerospace & Defense stocks, KRMN ranks #41 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.9 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Aerospace & Defense Stocks →

Karman Holdings Inc.'s positioning within the Aerospace & Defense segment means that commercial deliveries plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including next-gen platform contracts — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is KRMN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns KRMN a score of 17/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Karman Holdings Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Karman Holdings Inc. earns a quality score of 6.9/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +63.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every KRMN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across KRMN's 5 active models, average confidence is 36%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Karman Holdings Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Aerospace & Defense Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Aerospace & Defense stocks with 13-model coverage

RGRSturm, Ruger & Company, Inc.QOC 6.9AVAVAeroVironment, Inc.QOC 6.8DCODucommun IncorporatedQOC 7.0RDWRedwire CorporationQOC 6.7RKLBRocket Lab CorporationQOC 7.0EHEHang Holdings LimitedQOC 6.5SIDUSidus Space, Inc.QOC 5.2DPCDPC Holdings PLCQOC 3.6ATROAstronics CorporationQOC 8.4BUKSButler National CorporationQOC 9.4HWMHowmet Aerospace Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: RGR · AVAV · DCO · RDW · RKLB · EH · SIDU · DPC · ATRO · BUKS · HWM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to KRMN?

7 companies across all industries closest to KRMN’s Quality of Company score of 6.9/10.

FWRGFirst Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.QOC 6.9SMWBSimilarweb Ltd.QOC 6.9TALOTalos Energy Inc.QOC 6.9CRLCharles River Laboratories International, Inc.QOC 6.9DAIOData I/O CorporationQOC 6.9VMRKAvalonBay Communities, Inc.QOC 6.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: FWRG · SMWB · TALO · CRL · DAIO · VMRK · NVDA

Where Does KRMN Sit in CirclFi's Aerospace & Defense Rankings?

KRMN is ranked against every other Aerospace & Defense stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Aerospace & Defense stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Karman Holdings Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Karman Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN)'s intrinsic value at $20.95 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $11.01 to $41.25. The Quality of Company score is 6.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is KRMN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $47.42, 0 of 5 active models suggest KRMN may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $20.95, 55.8% below the current price of $47.42 — a consensus view that KRMN is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Karman Holdings Inc.'s business model in Aerospace & Defense.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.9 mean for KRMN?

Karman Holdings Inc.'s QOC of 6.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on KRMN?

CirclFi analyzes KRMN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on KRMN?

Of the 5 models currently active on KRMN, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $41.25 per share, and FTNN Topology is the most bearish at $11.01. CirclFi's published fair value for KRMN is the median of that range, $20.95, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 144% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is KRMN a value trap in 2026?

Karman Holdings Inc.'s Value Trap score is 17/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN) has a median fair value of $20.95 — 55.8% below the current price of $47.42 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/KRMN/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this KRMN valuation
  • Financial statements: Karman Holdings Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0002040127) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for KRMN as of ; valuations recomputed .

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