AvalonBay Communities, Inc. (VMRK) Fair Value 2026

VMRK · REIT - Residential ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (17/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, AvalonBay Communities, Inc. (VMRK) trades at $65.50, versus a $42.39 median fair value across its 7 active models — 35.3% below the current price. QOC: 6.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 17/100 (SAFE). 7/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
VMRK
Price
$65.50
Quality Score
6.9/10
Value Trap Risk
17/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: 7 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is AvalonBay Communities, Inc. (VMRK) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, AvalonBay Communities, Inc. (VMRK) appears overvalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $42.39, 35.3% below the current price of $65.50. Estimates range from $7.74 to $70.03. VMRK scores 6.9/10 on fundamental quality and 17/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. VMRK’s -35.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the REIT - Residential sector median is -41.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy AvalonBay Communities, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give VMRK?

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($65.50)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $23.28 -64.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $38.03 -41.9%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $52.14 -20.4%
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What Is VMRK's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 7 independent models · $7.74 to $70.03

CirclFi's 7 active models place AvalonBay Communities, Inc. (VMRK) between $7.74 and $70.03 per share, a spread of 147% of the median. The median of that range — $42.39 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for VMRK, against a current price of $65.50.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · Regime Cross
$7.74median $42.39$70.03
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$7.74
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$70.03
Model agreement1 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for VMRK. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on VMRK, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is AvalonBay Communities, Inc. (VMRK) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, AvalonBay Communities, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $42.39. Trading at its current price of $65.50, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 6 of 7 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -35.3%. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $70.03 (+6.9%), versus Dynamic NAV at $7.74 (-88.2%). This +95.1% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About VMRK?

7 of 13 models are currently active for VMRK. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for VMRK is $42.39 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does VMRK Rank in REIT - Residential?

Among 21 REIT - Residential stocks, VMRK ranks #13 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.9 indicates above-average quality.

AvalonBay Communities, Inc.'s positioning within the REIT - Residential segment means that occupancy rate plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including development pipeline delivery — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is VMRK a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns VMRK a score of 17/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for AvalonBay Communities, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, AvalonBay Communities, Inc. earns a quality score of 6.9/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +95.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every VMRK valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across VMRK's 7 active models, average confidence is 23%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy AvalonBay Communities, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar REIT - Residential Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related REIT - Residential stocks with 13-model coverage

AMHAmerican Homes 4 RentQOC 7.0BRTBRT Apartments Corp.QOC 6.4MRPMillrose Properties, Inc.QOC 7.2UMHUMH Properties, Inc.QOC 6.0CPTCamden Property TrustQOC 7.4NXRTNexPoint Residential Trust, Inc.QOC 6.0CLPRClipper Realty Inc.QOC 5.6UDRUDR, Inc.QOC 8.3MAAMid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.QOC 7.6INVHInvitation Homes Inc.QOC 8.5

Read investment analysis: AMH · BRT · MRP · UMH · CPT · NXRT · CLPR · UDR · MAA · INVH

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to VMRK?

7 companies across all industries closest to VMRK’s Quality of Company score of 6.9/10.

CRLCharles River Laboratories International, Inc.QOC 6.9NRIXNurix Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 6.9SMWBSimilarweb Ltd.QOC 6.9DDDuPont de Nemours, Inc.QOC 6.9KRMNKarman Holdings Inc.QOC 6.9NWNNorthwest Natural Holding CompanyQOC 6.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CRL · NRIX · SMWB · DD · KRMN · NWN · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About AvalonBay Communities, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is AvalonBay Communities, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts AvalonBay Communities, Inc. (VMRK)'s intrinsic value at $42.39 — the median of 7 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $7.74 to $70.03. The Quality of Company score is 6.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is VMRK overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $65.50, 1 of 7 active models suggest VMRK may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $42.39, 35.3% below the current price of $65.50 — a consensus view that VMRK is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits AvalonBay Communities, Inc.'s business model in REIT - Residential.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.9 mean for VMRK?

AvalonBay Communities, Inc.'s QOC of 6.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on VMRK?

CirclFi analyzes VMRK with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on VMRK?

Of the 7 models currently active on VMRK, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $70.03 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $7.74. CirclFi's published fair value for VMRK is the median of that range, $42.39, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 147% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is VMRK a value trap in 2026?

AvalonBay Communities, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 17/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, AvalonBay Communities, Inc. (VMRK) has a median fair value of $42.39 — 35.3% below the current price of $65.50 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/VMRK/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this VMRK valuation
  • Financial statements: AvalonBay Communities, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000906107) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for VMRK as of ; valuations recomputed .

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