UMH Properties, Inc. (UMH) Fair Value 2026

UMH · REIT - Residential ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (36/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, UMH Properties, Inc. (UMH) trades at $16.48, versus a $7.08 median fair value across its 8 active models — 57.0% below the current price. QOC: 6.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 36/100 (LOW). 8/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
UMH
Price
$16.48
Quality Score
6.0/10
Value Trap Risk
36/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: 8 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is UMH Properties, Inc. (UMH) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, UMH Properties, Inc. (UMH) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $7.08, 57.0% below the current price of $16.48. Estimates range from $2.70 to $14.63. UMH scores 6.0/10 on fundamental quality and 36/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. UMH’s -57.0% gap is wider than that market norm, and the REIT - Residential sector median is -41.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy UMH Properties, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give UMH?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($16.48)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $6.65 -59.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $10.61 -35.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $3.26 -80.2%
Asset-Based · High Conviction
 $2.70 -83.6%
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What Is UMH's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $2.70 to $14.63

CirclFi's 8 active models place UMH Properties, Inc. (UMH) between $2.70 and $14.63 per share, a spread of 169% of the median. The median of that range — $7.08 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for UMH, against a current price of $16.48.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · PWERM
$2.70median $7.08$14.63
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$2.70
Most bullish modelPWERM$14.63
Model agreement0 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for UMH. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on UMH, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is UMH Properties, Inc. (UMH) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, UMH Properties, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $7.08. Trading at its current price of $16.48, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 8 of 8 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -57.0%. The most optimistic model, PWERM, places fair value at $14.63 (-11.2%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $2.70 (-83.6%). This +72.4% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about UMH Properties, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About UMH?

8 of 13 models are currently active for UMH. All 8 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for UMH is $7.08 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does UMH Rank in REIT - Residential?

Among 21 REIT - Residential stocks, UMH ranks #15 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.0 indicates above-average quality.

The REIT - Residential sector introduces analytical considerations specific to real estate businesses. For UMH Properties, Inc., metrics like net asset value (NAV) premium/discount provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is UMH a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns UMH a score of 36/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for UMH Properties, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, UMH Properties, Inc. earns a quality score of 6.0/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +72.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every UMH valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across UMH's 8 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy UMH Properties, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar REIT - Residential Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related REIT - Residential stocks with 13-model coverage

BRTBRT Apartments Corp.QOC 6.4NXRTNexPoint Residential Trust, Inc.QOC 6.0VMRKAvalonBay Communities, Inc.QOC 6.9AIVApartment Investment and Management CompanyQOC 5.8AMHAmerican Homes 4 RentQOC 7.0CLPRClipper Realty Inc.QOC 5.6ELMEElme CommunitiesQOC 5.5IRTIndependence Realty Trust, Inc.QOC 8.0SUISun Communities, Inc.QOC 7.6INVHInvitation Homes Inc.QOC 8.5UDRUDR, Inc.QOC 8.3

Read investment analysis: BRT · NXRT · VMRK · AIV · AMH · CLPR · ELME · IRT · SUI · INVH · UDR

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to UMH?

7 companies across all industries closest to UMH’s Quality of Company score of 6.0/10.

IEIvanhoe Electric Inc.QOC 6.0VYCOVycor Medical, Inc.QOC 6.0TPCSTechPrecision CorporationQOC 6.0KLNGKoil Energy Solutions, Inc.QOC 6.0MOGUMOGU Inc.QOC 6.0KRUSKura Sushi USA, Inc.QOC 6.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: IE · VYCO · TPCS · KLNG · MOGU · KRUS · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About UMH Properties, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is UMH Properties, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts UMH Properties, Inc. (UMH)'s intrinsic value at $7.08 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $2.70 to $14.63. The Quality of Company score is 6.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is UMH overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $16.48, 0 of 8 active models suggest UMH may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $7.08, 57.0% below the current price of $16.48 — a consensus view that UMH is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits UMH Properties, Inc.'s business model in REIT - Residential.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.0 mean for UMH?

UMH Properties, Inc.'s QOC of 6.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on UMH?

CirclFi analyzes UMH with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on UMH?

Of the 8 models currently active on UMH, PWERM is the most bullish at $14.63 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $2.70. CirclFi's published fair value for UMH is the median of that range, $7.08, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 169% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is UMH a value trap in 2026?

UMH Properties, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 36/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, UMH Properties, Inc. (UMH) has a median fair value of $7.08 — 57.0% below the current price of $16.48 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/UMH/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this UMH valuation
  • Financial statements: UMH Properties, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000752642) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for UMH as of ; valuations recomputed .

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