UMH Properties, Inc. (UMH) Fair Value 2026

UMH · Real Estate Investment Trusts ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (16/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, UMH Properties, Inc. (UMH) trades at $15.28, approximately 101% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $7.61. QOC: 6.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 16/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
UMH
Price
$15.28
Quality Score
6.0/10
Value Trap Risk
16/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: 12 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is UMH Properties, Inc. (UMH) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, UMH Properties, Inc. (UMH) appears overvalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $8.98, 41.2% below the current price of $15.28. Estimates range from $0.85 to $17.41. UMH scores 6.0/10 on fundamental quality and 16/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy UMH Properties, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($15.28)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Medium Conviction
 $7.61 -50.2%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $9.16 -40.0%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
 $8.80 -42.4%
Markov DDM
Medium Conviction
 $10.43 -31.8%

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What Is UMH Properties, Inc. (UMH) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, UMH Properties, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $9.54. Trading at its current price of $15.28, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 9 of 12 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -37.5%. The most optimistic model, ML-RIV, places fair value at $17.41 (+13.9%), while Regime Cross — the most conservative — estimates $0.85 (-94.4%). This +108.3% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about UMH Properties, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About UMH?

12 of 13 models are currently active for UMH. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates UMH's intrinsic value at $7.61, implying -50.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does UMH Rank in Real Estate Investment Trusts?

Among 182 Real Estate Investment Trusts stocks, UMH ranks #131 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.0 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Real Estate Investment Trusts Stocks →

The Real Estate Investment Trusts sector introduces analytical considerations specific to real estate businesses. For UMH Properties, Inc., metrics like net asset value (NAV) premium/discount provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is UMH a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns UMH a score of 16/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for UMH Properties, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, UMH Properties, Inc. earns a quality score of 6.0/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +108.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every UMH valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across UMH's 12 active models, average confidence is 37%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy UMH Properties, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Real Estate Investment Trusts Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Real Estate Investment Trusts stocks with 13-model coverage

CUBECubeSmartQOC 9.5EGPEastGroup Properties, Inc.QOC 9.2SELFGlobal Self Storage, Inc.QOC 9.1EPRTEssential Properties Realty TruQOC 8.9HHHHoward Hughes Holdings Inc.QOC 8.8PSAPublic StorageQOC 8.7NSANational Storage Affiliates TruQOC 8.6ESSEssex Property Trust, Inc.QOC 8.6

Read investment analysis: CUBE · EGP · SELF · EPRT · HHH

See all Real Estate Investment Trusts stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About UMH Properties, Inc.

What is UMH Properties, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, UMH Properties, Inc. (UMH) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $7.61. The Quality of Company score is 6.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is UMH overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $15.28, 3 of 12 active models suggest UMH may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $8.98, 41.2% below the current price of $15.28 — a consensus view that UMH is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits UMH Properties, Inc.'s business model in Real Estate Investment Trusts.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.0 mean for UMH?

UMH Properties, Inc.'s QOC of 6.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on UMH?

CirclFi analyzes UMH with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is UMH a value trap in 2026?

UMH Properties, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 16/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, UMH Properties, Inc. (UMH) has a median fair value of $8.98 — 41.2% below the current price of $15.28 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/UMH/ · Methodology

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