Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP) Fair Value 2026

MRP · REIT - Residential ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP) trades at $30.50, versus a $45.26 median fair value across its 8 active models — 48.4% above the current price. QOC: 7.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
MRP
Price
$30.50
Quality Score
7.2/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: ML-RIV suggests +69.6% upside with 54% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (8/13) may reduce confidence

Is Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP) appears undervalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $45.26, 48.4% above the current price of $30.50. Estimates range from $0.44 to $96.82. MRP scores 7.2/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. MRP’s +48.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the REIT - Residential sector median is -41.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Millrose Properties, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MRP?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($30.50)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Low Conviction
 $0.44 -98.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $38.79 +27.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $28.44 -6.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $51.73 +69.6%
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What Is MRP's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $0.44 to $96.82

CirclFi's 8 active models place Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP) between $0.44 and $96.82 per share, a spread of 213% of the median. The median of that range — $45.26 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MRP, against a current price of $30.50.

Low · EPVHigh · FTNN
$0.44median $45.26$96.82
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$0.44
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$96.82
Model agreement5 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MRP. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MRP, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Millrose Properties, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $45.26, suggesting a +48.4% median upside from the current price of $30.50. While 5 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 3 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: FTNN targets $96.82 (+217.4%), versus EPV at $0.44 (-98.5%). This +316.0% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About MRP?

8 of 13 models are currently active for MRP. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MRP is $45.26 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MRP Rank in REIT - Residential?

Among 21 REIT - Residential stocks, MRP ranks #11 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.2 indicates above-average quality.

Within the REIT - Residential space, Millrose Properties, Inc. competes in an environment where net asset value (NAV) premium/discount often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is MRP a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MRP a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Millrose Properties, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Millrose Properties, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.2/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +316.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MRP valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MRP's 8 active models, average confidence is 34%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Millrose Properties, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar REIT - Residential Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related REIT - Residential stocks with 13-model coverage

CPTCamden Property TrustQOC 7.4AMHAmerican Homes 4 RentQOC 7.0SUISun Communities, Inc.QOC 7.6VMRKAvalonBay Communities, Inc.QOC 6.9AVBAvalonBay Communities IncQOC 7.6BRTBRT Apartments Corp.QOC 6.4NXRTNexPoint Residential Trust, Inc.QOC 6.0JANJanus Living, Inc.QOC 5.0ESSEssex Property Trust, Inc.QOC 7.9INVHInvitation Homes Inc.QOC 8.5UDRUDR, Inc.QOC 8.3

Read investment analysis: CPT · AMH · SUI · VMRK · AVB · BRT · NXRT · JAN · ESS · INVH · UDR

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MRP?

7 companies across all industries closest to MRP’s Quality of Company score of 7.2/10.

SYNASynaptics IncorporatedQOC 7.2CYDChina Yuchai International LimitedQOC 7.2AENTAlliance Entertainment Holding CorporationQOC 7.2USIOUsio, Inc.QOC 7.2CECelanese CorporationQOC 7.2HTTHigh Templar Tech LimitedQOC 7.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SYNA · CYD · AENT · USIO · CE · HTT · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Millrose Properties, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Millrose Properties, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP)'s intrinsic value at $45.26 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $0.44 to $96.82. The Quality of Company score is 7.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MRP overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $30.50, 5 of 8 active models suggest MRP may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $45.26, 48.4% above the current price of $30.50 — a consensus view that MRP is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Millrose Properties, Inc.'s business model in REIT - Residential.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.2 mean for MRP?

Millrose Properties, Inc.'s QOC of 7.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MRP?

CirclFi analyzes MRP with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MRP?

Of the 8 models currently active on MRP, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $96.82 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $0.44. CirclFi's published fair value for MRP is the median of that range, $45.26, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 213% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MRP a value trap in 2026?

Millrose Properties, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP) has a median fair value of $45.26 — 48.4% above the current price of $30.50 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MRP/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MRP valuation
  • Financial statements: Millrose Properties, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0002017206) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MRP as of ; valuations recomputed .

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