Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP) Fair Value 2026

MRP · Real Estate ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

(—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP) trades at $28.16, approximately 150% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $11.25. QOC: 6.1/10. 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
MRP
Price
$28.16
Quality Score
6.1/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +1.2% upside with 3% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($28.16)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Medium Conviction
$11.25 -60.1%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
$18.45 -34.5%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$28.49 +1.2%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$22.68 -19.5%

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What Is Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Millrose Properties, Inc. presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $28.16. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $33.55 (+19.1% average upside), masking a wide model spread between the 5 bullish models and 6 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: ML-RIV targets $115.79 (+311.2%), versus Bayesian DCF at $11.25 (-60.1%). This +371.3% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About MRP?

13 of 13 models are currently active for MRP. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates MRP's intrinsic value at $11.25, implying -60.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MRP Rank in Real Estate?

Among 32 Real Estate stocks, MRP ranks #16 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.1 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Real Estate Stocks →

Within the Real Estate space, Millrose Properties, Inc. competes in an environment where net asset value (NAV) premium/discount often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is MRP a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for MRP. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Millrose Properties, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Millrose Properties, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 6.1/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +371.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MRP valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MRP's 13 active models, average confidence is 30%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Millrose Properties, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Real Estate Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Real Estate stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: CHCI · FSV · FPH · VTMX · IIPR

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Frequently Asked Questions About Millrose Properties, Inc.

What is Millrose Properties, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $11.25. The Quality of Company score is 6.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MRP overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $28.16, 6 of 13 active models suggest MRP may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Millrose Properties, Inc.'s business model in Real Estate.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.1 mean for MRP?

Millrose Properties, Inc.'s QOC of 6.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MRP?

CirclFi analyzes MRP with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is MRP a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for MRP at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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