Astronics Corporation (ATRO) Fair Value 2026

ATRO · Aerospace & Defense ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Astronics Corporation (ATRO) trades at $77.99, versus a $35.60 median fair value across its 6 active models — 54.4% below the current price. QOC: 8.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ATRO
Price
$77.99
Quality Score
8.4/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.4/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Astronics Corporation (ATRO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Astronics Corporation (ATRO) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $35.60, 54.4% below the current price of $77.99. Estimates range from $9.67 to $118.75. ATRO scores 8.4/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. ATRO’s -54.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Aerospace & Defense sector median is -23.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Astronics Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ATRO?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($77.99)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $35.57 -54.4%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $41.51 -46.8%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $9.67 -87.6%
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What Is ATRO's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $9.67 to $118.75

CirclFi's 6 active models place Astronics Corporation (ATRO) between $9.67 and $118.75 per share, a spread of 306% of the median. The median of that range — $35.60 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ATRO, against a current price of $77.99.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$9.67median $35.60$118.75
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$9.67
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$118.75
Model agreement1 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ATRO. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ATRO, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Astronics Corporation (ATRO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Astronics Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $35.60. Trading at its current price of $77.99, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 5 of 6 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -54.4%. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +52.3% (fair value: $118.75), while EROIC is the most conservative at -87.6% ($9.67). The spread between these extremes — +139.9% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About ATRO?

6 of 13 models are currently active for ATRO. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ATRO is $35.60 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ATRO Rank in Aerospace & Defense?

Among 92 Aerospace & Defense stocks, ATRO ranks #18 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.4 places ATRO in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Aerospace & Defense Stocks →

Astronics Corporation's positioning within the Aerospace & Defense segment means that free cash flow conversion plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including space and satellite demand — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is ATRO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ATRO a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Astronics Corporation. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Astronics Corporation earns a quality score of 8.4/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +139.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ATRO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ATRO's 6 active models, average confidence is 38%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Astronics Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Aerospace & Defense Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Aerospace & Defense stocks with 13-model coverage

PKEPark Aerospace Corp.QOC 8.4TXTTextron Inc.QOC 8.3GDGeneral Dynamics CorporationQOC 8.4VVXV2X, Inc.QOC 8.3BWXTBWX Technologies, Inc.QOC 8.4CDRECadre Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.1KRMNKarman Holdings Inc.QOC 6.9SIDUSidus Space, Inc.QOC 5.2DPCDPC Holdings PLCQOC 3.6BUKSButler National CorporationQOC 9.4HWMHowmet Aerospace Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: PKE · TXT · GD · VVX · BWXT · CDRE · KRMN · SIDU · DPC · BUKS · HWM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ATRO?

7 companies across all industries closest to ATRO’s Quality of Company score of 8.4/10.

WILCG. Willi-Food International Ltd.QOC 8.4RRXRegal Rexnord CorporationQOC 8.4CHTRCharter Communications, Inc.QOC 8.4TTCThe Toro CompanyQOC 8.4CXMSprinklr, Inc.QOC 8.4NUTXNutex Health Inc.QOC 8.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: WILC · RRX · CHTR · TTC · CXM · NUTX · NVDA

Where Does ATRO Sit in CirclFi's Aerospace & Defense Rankings?

ATRO is ranked against every other Aerospace & Defense stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Aerospace & Defense stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Astronics Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Astronics Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Astronics Corporation (ATRO)'s intrinsic value at $35.60 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $9.67 to $118.75. The Quality of Company score is 8.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ATRO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $77.99, 1 of 6 active models suggest ATRO may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $35.60, 54.4% below the current price of $77.99 — a consensus view that ATRO is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Astronics Corporation's business model in Aerospace & Defense.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.4 mean for ATRO?

Astronics Corporation's QOC of 8.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ATRO?

CirclFi analyzes ATRO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ATRO?

Of the 6 models currently active on ATRO, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $118.75 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $9.67. CirclFi's published fair value for ATRO is the median of that range, $35.60, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 306% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ATRO a value trap in 2026?

Astronics Corporation's Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Astronics Corporation (ATRO) has a median fair value of $35.60 — 54.4% below the current price of $77.99 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ATRO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ATRO valuation
  • Financial statements: Astronics Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000008063) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ATRO as of ; valuations recomputed .

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