Matson, Inc. (MATX) Fair Value 2026

MATX · Marine Shipping ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Matson, Inc. (MATX) trades at $222.07, versus a $119.36 median fair value across its 12 active models — 46.3% below the current price. QOC: 8.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $144.99.

Key Facts

Ticker
MATX
Price
$222.07
Quality Score
8.4/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +21.9% upside with 55% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Matson, Inc. (MATX) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Matson, Inc. (MATX) appears overvalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $119.36, 46.3% below the current price of $222.07. Estimates range from $75.18 to $270.78. MATX scores 8.4/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. MATX’s -46.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Marine Shipping sector median is -15.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Matson, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MATX?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($222.07)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $144.99 -34.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $151.62 -31.7%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $125.86 -43.3%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $270.78 +21.9%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 8 additional models including EROIC Spread, Markov DDM, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 12 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is MATX's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $75.18 to $270.78

CirclFi's 12 active models place Matson, Inc. (MATX) between $75.18 and $270.78 per share, a spread of 164% of the median. The median of that range — $119.36 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MATX, against a current price of $222.07.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · First Chicago
$75.18median $119.36$270.78
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$75.18
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$270.78
Model agreement1 bullish · 11 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MATX. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MATX, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Matson, Inc. (MATX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Matson, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $119.36. Trading at its current price of $222.07, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 11 of 12 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -46.3%. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $270.78 (+21.9%), versus Dynamic NAV at $75.18 (-66.1%). This +88.1% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About MATX?

12 of 13 models are currently active for MATX. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 11 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MATX is $119.36 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $144.99 on its own, implying -34.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MATX Rank in Marine Shipping?

Among 37 Marine Shipping stocks, MATX ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.4 places MATX in the top tier.

Matson, Inc.'s positioning within the Marine Shipping segment means that EBIT per unit plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including autonomous driving technology — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is MATX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MATX a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Matson, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Matson, Inc. earns a quality score of 8.4/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +88.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MATX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MATX's 12 active models, average confidence is 50%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Matson, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Marine Shipping Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Marine Shipping stocks with 13-model coverage

KEXKirby CorporationQOC 8.4ASCArdmore Shipping CorporationQOC 8.2HAFNHafnia LimitedQOC 8.5PANLPangaea Logistics Solutions Ltd.QOC 8.2GASSStealthGas Inc.QOC 9.0SBLKStar Bulk Carriers Corp.QOC 8.2HSHPHimalaya Shipping Ltd.QOC 7.4USEAUnited Maritime CorporationQOC 5.6SBSafe Bulkers, Inc.QOC 2.8GSLGlobal Ship Lease, Inc.QOC 9.4CMRECostamare Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: KEX · ASC · HAFN · PANL · GASS · SBLK · HSHP · USEA · SB · GSL · CMRE

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MATX?

7 companies across all industries closest to MATX’s Quality of Company score of 8.4/10.

SIGASIGA Technologies, Inc.QOC 8.4NWSANews CorporationQOC 8.4IDRIdaho Strategic Resources, Inc.QOC 8.4PKEPark Aerospace Corp.QOC 8.4QCRHQCR Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.4NWSNews CorporationQOC 8.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SIGA · NWSA · IDR · PKE · QCRH · NWS · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Matson, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Matson, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Matson, Inc. (MATX)'s intrinsic value at $119.36 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $75.18 to $270.78. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $144.99 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MATX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $222.07, 1 of 12 active models suggest MATX may be undervalued, while 11 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $119.36, 46.3% below the current price of $222.07 — a consensus view that MATX is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Matson, Inc.'s business model in Marine Shipping.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.4 mean for MATX?

Matson, Inc.'s QOC of 8.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MATX?

CirclFi analyzes MATX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MATX?

Of the 12 models currently active on MATX, First Chicago is the most bullish at $270.78 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $75.18. CirclFi's published fair value for MATX is the median of that range, $119.36, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 164% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MATX a value trap in 2026?

Matson, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Matson, Inc. (MATX) has a median fair value of $119.36 — 46.3% below the current price of $222.07 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MATX/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MATX valuation
  • Financial statements: Matson, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000003453) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MATX as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 12 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on MATX.

Unlock All 12 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

8 models hidden for MATX Unlock All 12 — $39/mo