Ardmore Shipping Corporation (ASC) Fair Value 2026

ASC · Marine Shipping ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Ardmore Shipping Corporation (ASC) trades at $17.66, versus a $13.25 median fair value across its 12 active models — 25.0% below the current price. QOC: 8.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $33.02.

Key Facts

Ticker
ASC
Price
$17.66
Quality Score
8.2/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +87.0% upside with 61% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Is Ardmore Shipping Corporation (ASC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Ardmore Shipping Corporation (ASC) appears overvalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $13.25, 25.0% below the current price of $17.66. Estimates range from $5.52 to $53.71. ASC scores 8.2/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. ASC’s -25.0% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Marine Shipping sector median is -15.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Ardmore Shipping Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ASC?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($17.66)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $33.02 +87.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $12.07 -31.7%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $16.59 -6.1%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $24.76 +40.2%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 8 additional models including EROIC Spread, Markov DDM, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 12 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is ASC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $5.52 to $53.71

CirclFi's 12 active models place Ardmore Shipping Corporation (ASC) between $5.52 and $53.71 per share, a spread of 364% of the median. The median of that range — $13.25 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ASC, against a current price of $17.66.

Low · Regime CrossHigh · RCMH-DCF
$5.52median $13.25$53.71
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$5.52
Most bullish modelRCMH-DCF$53.71
Model agreement4 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ASC. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ASC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Ardmore Shipping Corporation (ASC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Ardmore Shipping Corporation at its current price of $17.66. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $13.25 (-25.0% vs price), with 8 models flagging overvaluation risk. Model dispersion is worth noting: RCMH-DCF targets $53.71 (+204.1%), versus Regime Cross at $5.52 (-68.7%). This +272.9% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About ASC?

12 of 13 models are currently active for ASC. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ASC is $13.25 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $33.02 on its own, implying +87.0% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ASC Rank in Marine Shipping?

Among 37 Marine Shipping stocks, ASC ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.2 places ASC in the top tier.

As a transportation company, Ardmore Shipping Corporation operates in a sector where EV mix percentage is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating ASC should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is ASC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ASC a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Ardmore Shipping Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Ardmore Shipping Corporation is rated at 8.2/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +272.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ASC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ASC's 12 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Ardmore Shipping Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Marine Shipping Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Marine Shipping stocks with 13-model coverage

MATXMatson, Inc.QOC 8.4PANLPangaea Logistics Solutions Ltd.QOC 8.2KEXKirby CorporationQOC 8.4SBLKStar Bulk Carriers Corp.QOC 8.2HAFNHafnia LimitedQOC 8.5NCTIntercont (Cayman) LimitedQOC 7.7PSHGPerformance Shipping Inc.QOC 7.2RUBIRubico Inc.QOC 5.5UFGUni-Fuels Holdings LimitedQOC 2.8GSLGlobal Ship Lease, Inc.QOC 9.4CMRECostamare Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: MATX · PANL · KEX · SBLK · HAFN · NCT · PSHG · RUBI · UFG · GSL · CMRE

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ASC?

7 companies across all industries closest to ASC’s Quality of Company score of 8.2/10.

CPAYCorpay, Inc.QOC 8.2CPCanadian Pacific Kansas City LimitedQOC 8.2VIPSVipshop Holdings LimitedQOC 8.2STLDSteel Dynamics, Inc.QOC 8.2NOVTNovanta Inc.QOC 8.2ARLPAlliance Resource Partners, L.P.QOC 8.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CPAY · CP · VIPS · STLD · NOVT · ARLP · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Ardmore Shipping Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Ardmore Shipping Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Ardmore Shipping Corporation (ASC)'s intrinsic value at $13.25 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $5.52 to $53.71. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $33.02 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ASC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $17.66, 4 of 12 active models suggest ASC may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $13.25, 25.0% below the current price of $17.66 — a consensus view that ASC is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Ardmore Shipping Corporation's business model in Marine Shipping.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.2 mean for ASC?

Ardmore Shipping Corporation's QOC of 8.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ASC?

CirclFi analyzes ASC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ASC?

Of the 12 models currently active on ASC, RCMH-DCF is the most bullish at $53.71 per share, and Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bearish at $5.52. CirclFi's published fair value for ASC is the median of that range, $13.25, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 364% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ASC a value trap in 2026?

Ardmore Shipping Corporation's Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Ardmore Shipping Corporation (ASC) has a median fair value of $13.25 — 25.0% below the current price of $17.66 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ASC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ASC valuation
  • Financial statements: Ardmore Shipping Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001577437) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ASC as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 12 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on ASC.

Unlock All 12 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

8 models hidden for ASC Unlock All 12 — $39/mo