Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP) Fair Value 2026

CP · Railroads ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (13/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP) trades at $94.12, versus a $32.63 median fair value across its 12 active models — 65.3% below the current price. QOC: 8.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 13/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $17.93.

Key Facts

Ticker
CP
Price
$94.12
Quality Score
8.2/10
Value Trap Risk
13/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +3.8% upside with 60% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP) appears overvalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $32.63, 65.3% below the current price of $94.12. Estimates range from $2.13 to $193.72. CP scores 8.2/10 on fundamental quality and 13/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. CP’s -65.3% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CP?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($94.12)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $17.93 -81.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $15.29 -83.8%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $38.10 -59.5%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $97.74 +3.8%
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What Is CP's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $2.13 to $193.72

CirclFi's 12 active models place Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP) between $2.13 and $193.72 per share, a spread of 587% of the median. The median of that range — $32.63 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CP, against a current price of $94.12.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · Regime Cross
$2.13median $32.63$193.72
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$2.13
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$193.72
Model agreement1 bullish · 10 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CP. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CP, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited's intrinsic value is estimated at $32.63, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $94.12. With 10 out of 12 models flagging downside (-65.3% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $193.72 (+105.8%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $2.13 (-97.7%). This +203.6% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About CP?

12 of 13 models are currently active for CP. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for CP is $32.63 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $17.93 on its own, implying -81.0% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CP Rank in Railroads?

Among 14 Railroads stocks, CP ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.2 places CP in the top tier.

Within the Railroads space, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited competes in an environment where units delivered often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is CP a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CP a score of 13/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited is rated at 8.2/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +203.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CP valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CP's 12 active models, average confidence is 51%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Railroads Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Railroads stocks with 13-model coverage

NSCNorfolk Southern CorporationQOC 8.3RAILFreightCar America, Inc.QOC 8.2UNPUnion Pacific CorporationQOC 8.6GBXThe Greenbrier Companies, Inc.QOC 8.0WABWestinghouse Air Brake Technologies CorporationQOC 8.9FSTRL.B. Foster CompanyQOC 7.9SWVLSwvl Holdings Corp.QOC 5.3RVSNRail Vision Ltd.QOC 2.2

Read investment analysis: NSC · RAIL · UNP · GBX · WAB · FSTR · SWVL · RVSN

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CP?

7 companies across all industries closest to CP’s Quality of Company score of 8.2/10.

CPAYCorpay, Inc.QOC 8.2STLDSteel Dynamics, Inc.QOC 8.2VIPSVipshop Holdings LimitedQOC 8.2CNXNPC Connection, Inc.QOC 8.2CVNACarvana Co.QOC 8.2ARLPAlliance Resource Partners, L.P.QOC 8.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CPAY · STLD · VIPS · CNXN · CVNA · ARLP · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited’s Valuation?

What is Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP)'s intrinsic value at $32.63 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $2.13 to $193.72. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $17.93 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CP overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $94.12, 2 of 12 active models suggest CP may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $32.63, 65.3% below the current price of $94.12 — a consensus view that CP is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited's business model in Railroads.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.2 mean for CP?

Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited's QOC of 8.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CP?

CirclFi analyzes CP with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CP?

Of the 12 models currently active on CP, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $193.72 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $2.13. CirclFi's published fair value for CP is the median of that range, $32.63, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 587% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CP a value trap in 2026?

Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited's Value Trap score is 13/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP) has a median fair value of $32.63 — 65.3% below the current price of $94.12 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CP/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CP valuation

Market data for CP as of ; valuations recomputed .

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