Canadian Pacific Kansas City Li (CP) Fair Value 2026

CP · Railroads, Line-Haul Operating ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (21/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Li (CP) trades at $91.38, approximately 92% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $47.60. QOC: 8.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 21/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
CP
Price
$91.38
Quality Score
8.5/10
Value Trap Risk
21/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.5/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($91.38)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$47.60 -47.9%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$6.92 -92.4%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$64.48 -29.4%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$89.92 -1.6%

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What Is Canadian Pacific Kansas City Li (CP) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Li's intrinsic value is estimated at a composite $68.47, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $91.38. While the average implied return is -25.1%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +125.8% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, Markov DDM, places fair value at $121.86 (+33.4%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $6.92 (-92.4%). This +125.8% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Canadian Pacific Kansas City Li's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About CP?

13 of 13 models are currently active for CP. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates CP's intrinsic value at $47.60, implying -47.9% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CP Rank in Railroads, Line-Haul Operating?

Among 6 Railroads, Line-Haul Operating stocks, CP ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.5 places CP in the top tier.

Within the Railroads, Line-Haul Operating space, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Li competes in an environment where units delivered often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is CP a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CP a score of 21/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Canadian Pacific Kansas City Li. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Li is rated at 8.5/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +125.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CP valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CP's 13 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Canadian Pacific Kansas City Li Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Railroads, Line-Haul Operating Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

5 related Railroads, Line-Haul Operating stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: UNP · CSX · NSC · FIP · CNI

Frequently Asked Questions About Canadian Pacific Kansas City Li

What is Canadian Pacific Kansas City Li's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Li (CP) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $47.60. The Quality of Company score is 8.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CP overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $91.38, 5 of 13 active models suggest CP may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Canadian Pacific Kansas City Li's business model in Railroads, Line-Haul Operating.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.5 mean for CP?

Canadian Pacific Kansas City Li's QOC of 8.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CP?

CirclFi analyzes CP with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is CP a value trap in 2026?

Canadian Pacific Kansas City Li's Value Trap score is 21/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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