Canadian National Railway Company (CNI) Fair Value 2026

CNI · Railroads ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 2 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Canadian National Railway Company (CNI) trades at $118.41, versus a $233.75 median fair value across its 2 active models — 97.4% above the current price. QOC: 5.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 2/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
CNI
Price
$118.41
Quality Score
5.0/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
2/13
Last Updated
Strength: Regime Cross-Sectional suggests +193.8% upside with 12% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 5.0/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is Canadian National Railway Company (CNI) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Canadian National Railway Company (CNI) appears undervalued as of : the median of 2 independent fair value estimates is $233.75, 97.4% above the current price of $118.41. Estimates range from $119.64 to $347.86. CNI scores 5.0/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. CNI’s +97.4% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Canadian National Railway Company Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CNI?

2 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($118.41)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Low Conviction
 $119.64 +1.0%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $347.86 +193.8%

All Models Active

All 2 models are displayed above.

What Is Canadian National Railway Company (CNI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Canadian National Railway Company presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $118.41. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $233.75 (+97.4% median upside), masking a wide model spread between the 1 bullish models and 0 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $347.86 (+193.8%), versus Markov DDM at $119.64 (+1.0%). This +192.7% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About CNI?

2 of 13 models are currently active for CNI. All 2 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for CNI is $233.75 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CNI Rank in Railroads?

Among 14 Railroads stocks, CNI ranks #12 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.0 reflects mixed fundamentals.

Canadian National Railway Company's positioning within the Railroads segment means that warranty cost ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including electric vehicle transition — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is CNI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CNI a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

2 of 13 models are active for Canadian National Railway Company. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Canadian National Railway Company scores 5.0 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a moderate rating that shows mixed signals across our quality framework with notable weaknesses. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +192.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CNI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CNI's 2 active models, average confidence is 14%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Canadian National Railway Company Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Railroads Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Railroads stocks with 13-model coverage

SWVLSwvl Holdings Corp.QOC 5.3PNYGPony Group Inc.QOC 4.9MGTEMarblegate Capital CorporationQOC 6.3RVSNRail Vision Ltd.QOC 2.2CSXCSX CorporationQOC 7.6WABWestinghouse Air Brake Technologies CorporationQOC 8.9CPCanadian Pacific Kansas City LimitedQOC 8.2TRNTrinity Industries, Inc.QOC 7.6UNPUnion Pacific CorporationQOC 8.6

Read investment analysis: SWVL · PNYG · MGTE · RVSN · CSX · WAB · CP · TRN · UNP

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CNI?

7 companies across all industries closest to CNI’s Quality of Company score of 5.0/10.

CRVOCervoMed Inc.QOC 5.0GNTAGenenta Science S.p.A.QOC 5.0OZBelpointe PREP, LLCQOC 5.0DFSCDEFSEC Technologies Inc.QOC 5.0DEFTDeFi Technologies Inc.QOC 5.0PMVPPMV Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 5.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CRVO · GNTA · OZ · DFSC · DEFT · PMVP · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Canadian National Railway Company’s Valuation?

What is Canadian National Railway Company's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Canadian National Railway Company (CNI)'s intrinsic value at $233.75 — the median of 2 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $119.64 to $347.86. The Quality of Company score is 5.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CNI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $118.41, 2 of 2 active models suggest CNI may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 2 fair value estimates is $233.75, 97.4% above the current price of $118.41 — a consensus view that CNI is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Canadian National Railway Company's business model in Railroads.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.0 mean for CNI?

Canadian National Railway Company's QOC of 5.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CNI?

CirclFi analyzes CNI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 2 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is CNI a value trap in 2026?

Canadian National Railway Company's Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Canadian National Railway Company (CNI) has a median fair value of $233.75 — 97.4% above the current price of $118.41 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CNI/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CNI valuation
  • Financial statements: Canadian National Railway Company 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000016868) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CNI as of ; valuations recomputed .