Canadian National Railway Compa (CNI) Fair Value 2026

CNI · Railroads, Line-Haul Operating ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

2.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

(—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Canadian National Railway Compa (CNI) trades at $125.28, approximately 202% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $41.42. QOC: 2.0/10. 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
CNI
Price
$125.28
Quality Score
2.0/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +12.5% upside with 7% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 2.0/10 signals weak fundamentals

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($125.28)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
$41.42 -66.9%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
$56.51 -54.9%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$69.41 -44.6%
First Chicago
Low Conviction
$140.98 +12.5%

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What Is Canadian National Railway Compa (CNI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Canadian National Railway Compa presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $125.28. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $105.29 (-16.0% average upside), masking a wide model spread between the 4 bullish models and 7 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: Markov DDM targets $299.53 (+139.1%), versus Dynamic NAV at $12.61 (-89.9%). This +229.0% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About CNI?

13 of 13 models are currently active for CNI. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates CNI's intrinsic value at $41.42, implying -66.9% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CNI Rank in Railroads, Line-Haul Operating?

Among 6 Railroads, Line-Haul Operating stocks, CNI ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 2.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 2.0 signals below-average fundamentals.

Canadian National Railway Compa's positioning within the Railroads, Line-Haul Operating segment means that warranty cost ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including electric vehicle transition — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is CNI a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for CNI. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Canadian National Railway Compa. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Canadian National Railway Compa scores 2.0 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a weak rating that exhibits fundamental weaknesses that warrant careful scrutiny. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +229.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CNI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CNI's 13 active models, average confidence is 7%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Canadian National Railway Compa Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Railroads, Line-Haul Operating Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

5 related Railroads, Line-Haul Operating stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: UNP · CP · CSX · NSC · FIP

Frequently Asked Questions About Canadian National Railway Compa

What is Canadian National Railway Compa's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Canadian National Railway Compa (CNI) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $41.42. The Quality of Company score is 2.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CNI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $125.28, 5 of 13 active models suggest CNI may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Canadian National Railway Compa's business model in Railroads, Line-Haul Operating.

What does a Quality of Company score of 2.0 mean for CNI?

Canadian National Railway Compa's QOC of 2.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CNI?

CirclFi analyzes CNI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is CNI a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for CNI at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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