What Is Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Union Pacific Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $165.62, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $289.13. With 11 out of 12 models flagging downside (-42.7% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $289.26 (+0.0%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $46.71 (-83.8%). This +83.9% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Union Pacific Corporation's intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.
What Do the Models Say About UNP?
12 of 13 models are currently active for UNP. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 11 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates UNP's intrinsic value at $87.03, implying -69.9% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does UNP Rank in Railroads, Line-Haul Operating?
Among 6 Railroads, Line-Haul Operating stocks, UNP ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.8 places UNP in the top tier.
Within the Railroads, Line-Haul Operating space, Union Pacific Corporation competes in an environment where fleet electrification pace often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.
Is UNP a Value Trap?
The Value Trap algorithm is not active for UNP. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
12 of 13 models are active for Union Pacific Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Union Pacific Corporation's fundamental quality profile registers 8.8/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +83.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every UNP valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across UNP's 12 active models, average confidence is 48%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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