Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) Fair Value 2026

UNP · Railroads ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) trades at $307.67, versus a $135.47 median fair value across its 10 active models — 56.0% below the current price. QOC: 8.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $94.21.

Key Facts

Ticker
UNP
Price
$307.67
Quality Score
8.6/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.6/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $135.47, 56.0% below the current price of $307.67. Estimates range from $66.02 to $420.63. UNP scores 8.6/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. UNP’s -56.0% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Union Pacific Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give UNP?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($307.67)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $94.21 -69.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $104.64 -66.0%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $145.63 -52.7%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $252.23 -18.0%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 6 additional models including EROIC Spread, Markov DDM, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 10 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is UNP's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $66.02 to $420.63

CirclFi's 10 active models place Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) between $66.02 and $420.63 per share, a spread of 262% of the median. The median of that range — $135.47 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for UNP, against a current price of $307.67.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$66.02median $135.47$420.63
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$66.02
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$420.63
Model agreement1 bullish · 9 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for UNP. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on UNP, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Union Pacific Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $135.47, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $307.67. With 9 out of 10 models flagging downside (-56.0% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $420.63 (+36.7%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $66.02 (-78.5%). This +115.3% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Union Pacific Corporation's intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About UNP?

10 of 13 models are currently active for UNP. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for UNP is $135.47 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $94.21 on its own, implying -69.4% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does UNP Rank in Railroads?

Among 14 Railroads stocks, UNP ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.6 places UNP in the top tier.

Within the Railroads space, Union Pacific Corporation competes in an environment where fleet electrification pace often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is UNP a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns UNP a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Union Pacific Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Union Pacific Corporation's fundamental quality profile registers 8.6/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +115.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every UNP valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across UNP's 10 active models, average confidence is 53%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Union Pacific Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Railroads Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Railroads stocks with 13-model coverage

WABWestinghouse Air Brake Technologies CorporationQOC 8.9NSCNorfolk Southern CorporationQOC 8.3RVSNRail Vision Ltd.QOC 2.2CPCanadian Pacific Kansas City LimitedQOC 8.2PNYGPony Group Inc.QOC 4.9RAILFreightCar America, Inc.QOC 8.2CSXCSX CorporationQOC 7.6CNICanadian National Railway CompanyQOC 5.0

Read investment analysis: WAB · NSC · RVSN · CP · PNYG · RAIL · CSX · CNI

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to UNP?

7 companies across all industries closest to UNP’s Quality of Company score of 8.6/10.

MNSOMINISO Group Holding LimitedQOC 8.6SRCE1st Source CorporationQOC 8.6ULSUL Solutions Inc.QOC 8.6FLXSFlexsteel Industries, Inc.QOC 8.6URIUnited Rentals, Inc.QOC 8.6OTTROtter Tail CorporationQOC 8.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: MNSO · SRCE · ULS · FLXS · URI · OTTR · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Union Pacific Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Union Pacific Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Union Pacific Corporation (UNP)'s intrinsic value at $135.47 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $66.02 to $420.63. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $94.21 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is UNP overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $307.67, 1 of 10 active models suggest UNP may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $135.47, 56.0% below the current price of $307.67 — a consensus view that UNP is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Union Pacific Corporation's business model in Railroads.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.6 mean for UNP?

Union Pacific Corporation's QOC of 8.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on UNP?

CirclFi analyzes UNP with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on UNP?

Of the 10 models currently active on UNP, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $420.63 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $66.02. CirclFi's published fair value for UNP is the median of that range, $135.47, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 262% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is UNP a value trap in 2026?

Union Pacific Corporation's Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) has a median fair value of $135.47 — 56.0% below the current price of $307.67 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/UNP/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this UNP valuation
  • Financial statements: Union Pacific Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000100885) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for UNP as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 10 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on UNP.

Unlock All 10 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

6 models hidden for UNP Unlock All 10 — $39/mo