Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) Fair Value 2026

NSC · Railroads ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) trades at $348.68, versus a $112.13 median fair value across its 11 active models — 67.8% below the current price. QOC: 8.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $98.39.

Key Facts

Ticker
NSC
Price
$348.68
Quality Score
8.3/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.3/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $112.13, 67.8% below the current price of $348.68. Estimates range from $66.51 to $381.08. NSC scores 8.3/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. NSC’s -67.8% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Norfolk Southern Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NSC?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($348.68)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $98.39 -71.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $71.49 -79.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $129.91 -62.7%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $332.84 -4.5%
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What Is NSC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $66.51 to $381.08

CirclFi's 11 active models place Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) between $66.51 and $381.08 per share, a spread of 281% of the median. The median of that range — $112.13 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NSC, against a current price of $348.68.

Low · RCMH-DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$66.51median $112.13$381.08
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRCMH-DCF$66.51
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$381.08
Model agreement1 bullish · 9 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for NSC. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NSC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Norfolk Southern Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $112.13. Trading at its current price of $348.68, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 9 of 11 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -67.8%. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $381.08 (+9.3%), while RCMH-DCF — the most conservative — estimates $66.51 (-80.9%). This +90.2% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Norfolk Southern Corporation's intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About NSC?

11 of 13 models are currently active for NSC. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for NSC is $112.13 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $98.39 on its own, implying -71.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NSC Rank in Railroads?

Among 14 Railroads stocks, NSC ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.3 places NSC in the top tier.

Norfolk Southern Corporation's positioning within the Railroads segment means that units delivered plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including electric vehicle transition — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is NSC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NSC a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Norfolk Southern Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Norfolk Southern Corporation scores 8.3 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +90.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NSC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NSC's 11 active models, average confidence is 52%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Norfolk Southern Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Railroads Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Railroads stocks with 13-model coverage

UNPUnion Pacific CorporationQOC 8.6CPCanadian Pacific Kansas City LimitedQOC 8.2WABWestinghouse Air Brake Technologies CorporationQOC 8.9RAILFreightCar America, Inc.QOC 8.2RVSNRail Vision Ltd.QOC 2.2GBXThe Greenbrier Companies, Inc.QOC 8.0MGTEMarblegate Capital CorporationQOC 6.3PNYGPony Group Inc.QOC 4.9

Read investment analysis: UNP · CP · WAB · RAIL · RVSN · GBX · MGTE · PNYG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NSC?

7 companies across all industries closest to NSC’s Quality of Company score of 8.3/10.

MALGMicroalliance Group Inc.QOC 8.3BILIBilibili Inc.QOC 8.3AMRXAmneal Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 8.3WWWWolverine World Wide, Inc.QOC 8.3REXREX American Resources CorporationQOC 8.3CARECarter Bankshares, Inc.QOC 8.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: MALG · BILI · AMRX · WWW · REX · CARE · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Norfolk Southern Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Norfolk Southern Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC)'s intrinsic value at $112.13 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $66.51 to $381.08. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $98.39 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NSC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $348.68, 1 of 11 active models suggest NSC may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $112.13, 67.8% below the current price of $348.68 — a consensus view that NSC is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Norfolk Southern Corporation's business model in Railroads.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.3 mean for NSC?

Norfolk Southern Corporation's QOC of 8.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NSC?

CirclFi analyzes NSC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NSC?

Of the 11 models currently active on NSC, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $381.08 per share, and RCMH-DCF is the most bearish at $66.51. CirclFi's published fair value for NSC is the median of that range, $112.13, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 281% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NSC a value trap in 2026?

Norfolk Southern Corporation's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) has a median fair value of $112.13 — 67.8% below the current price of $348.68 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NSC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NSC valuation
  • Financial statements: Norfolk Southern Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000702165) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NSC as of ; valuations recomputed .

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