FreightCar America, Inc. (RAIL) Fair Value 2026

RAIL · Railroads ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, FreightCar America, Inc. (RAIL) trades at $7.24, versus a $13.30 median fair value across its 8 active models — 83.7% above the current price. QOC: 8.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $1.38.

Key Facts

Ticker
RAIL
Price
$7.24
Quality Score
8.2/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +232.5% upside with 47% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (8/13) may reduce confidence

Is FreightCar America, Inc. (RAIL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, FreightCar America, Inc. (RAIL) appears undervalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $13.30, 83.7% above the current price of $7.24. Estimates range from $1.38 to $34.30. RAIL scores 8.2/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. RAIL’s +83.7% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy FreightCar America, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give RAIL?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($7.24)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $1.38 -80.9%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $13.19 +82.1%
Scenario · Medium Conviction
 $24.07 +232.5%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $6.80 -6.0%
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What Is RAIL's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $1.38 to $34.30

CirclFi's 8 active models place FreightCar America, Inc. (RAIL) between $1.38 and $34.30 per share, a spread of 247% of the median. The median of that range — $13.30 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for RAIL, against a current price of $7.24.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$1.38median $13.30$34.30
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$1.38
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$34.30
Model agreement6 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for RAIL. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on RAIL, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is FreightCar America, Inc. (RAIL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, FreightCar America, Inc. is potentially undervalued at its current price of $7.24. Based on our 13-model framework, FreightCar America, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $13.30 — representing +83.7% implied upside — with 6 out of 8 active models confirming this thesis. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $34.30 (+373.7%), versus Bayesian DCF at $1.38 (-80.9%). This +454.6% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About RAIL?

8 of 13 models are currently active for RAIL. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for RAIL is $13.30 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $1.38 on its own, implying -80.9% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does RAIL Rank in Railroads?

Among 14 Railroads stocks, RAIL ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.2 places RAIL in the top tier.

The Railroads sector introduces analytical considerations specific to transportation company businesses. For FreightCar America, Inc., metrics like fleet electrification pace provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is RAIL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns RAIL a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for FreightCar America, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, FreightCar America, Inc. scores 8.2 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +454.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every RAIL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across RAIL's 8 active models, average confidence is 34%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy FreightCar America, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Railroads Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Railroads stocks with 13-model coverage

CPCanadian Pacific Kansas City LimitedQOC 8.2GBXThe Greenbrier Companies, Inc.QOC 8.0NSCNorfolk Southern CorporationQOC 8.3FSTRL.B. Foster CompanyQOC 7.9UNPUnion Pacific CorporationQOC 8.6TRNTrinity Industries, Inc.QOC 7.6CNICanadian National Railway CompanyQOC 5.0WABWestinghouse Air Brake Technologies CorporationQOC 8.9

Read investment analysis: CP · GBX · NSC · FSTR · UNP · TRN · CNI · WAB

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to RAIL?

7 companies across all industries closest to RAIL’s Quality of Company score of 8.2/10.

PGYPagaya Technologies Ltd.QOC 8.2AERAerCap Holdings N.V.QOC 8.2NOBHNobility Homes, Inc.QOC 8.2GBCIGlacier Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.2BCALCalifornia BanCorpQOC 8.2GGALGrupo Financiero Galicia S.A.QOC 8.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PGY · AER · NOBH · GBCI · BCAL · GGAL · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About FreightCar America, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is FreightCar America, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts FreightCar America, Inc. (RAIL)'s intrinsic value at $13.30 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $1.38 to $34.30. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $1.38 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is RAIL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $7.24, 6 of 8 active models suggest RAIL may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $13.30, 83.7% above the current price of $7.24 — a consensus view that RAIL is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits FreightCar America, Inc.'s business model in Railroads.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.2 mean for RAIL?

FreightCar America, Inc.'s QOC of 8.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on RAIL?

CirclFi analyzes RAIL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on RAIL?

Of the 8 models currently active on RAIL, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $34.30 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $1.38. CirclFi's published fair value for RAIL is the median of that range, $13.30, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 247% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is RAIL a value trap in 2026?

FreightCar America, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, FreightCar America, Inc. (RAIL) has a median fair value of $13.30 — 83.7% above the current price of $7.24 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/RAIL/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this RAIL valuation
  • Financial statements: FreightCar America, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001320854) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for RAIL as of ; valuations recomputed .

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