The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (GBX) Fair Value 2026

GBX · Railroads ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (GBX) trades at $46.12, versus a $76.24 median fair value across its 10 active models — 65.3% above the current price. QOC: 8.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
GBX
Price
$46.12
Quality Score
8.0/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +337.8% upside with 57% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (10/13) may reduce confidence

Is The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (GBX) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (GBX) appears undervalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $76.24, 65.3% above the current price of $46.12. Estimates range from $11.57 to $201.90. GBX scores 8.0/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. GBX’s +65.3% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give GBX?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($46.12)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $74.41 +61.3%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $201.90 +337.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $31.67 -31.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $16.60 -64.0%
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What Is GBX's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $11.57 to $201.90

CirclFi's 10 active models place The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (GBX) between $11.57 and $201.90 per share, a spread of 250% of the median. The median of that range — $76.24 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for GBX, against a current price of $46.12.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · First Chicago
$11.57median $76.24$201.90
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$11.57
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$201.90
Model agreement6 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for GBX. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on GBX, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (GBX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. at $46.12. With an estimated intrinsic value of $76.24 and 6 of 10 models pointing higher, the median implied return is +65.3%. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $201.90 (+337.8%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $11.57 (-74.9%). This +412.7% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about The Greenbrier Companies, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About GBX?

10 of 13 models are currently active for GBX. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for GBX is $76.24 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does GBX Rank in Railroads?

Among 14 Railroads stocks, GBX ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.0 indicates above-average quality.

As a automotive sector, The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. operates in a sector where fleet electrification pace is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating GBX should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is GBX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns GBX a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for The Greenbrier Companies, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. is rated at 8.0/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +412.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every GBX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across GBX's 10 active models, average confidence is 45%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Railroads Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Railroads stocks with 13-model coverage

RAILFreightCar America, Inc.QOC 8.2FSTRL.B. Foster CompanyQOC 7.9CPCanadian Pacific Kansas City LimitedQOC 8.2TRNTrinity Industries, Inc.QOC 7.6NSCNorfolk Southern CorporationQOC 8.3CSXCSX CorporationQOC 7.6PNYGPony Group Inc.QOC 4.9UNPUnion Pacific CorporationQOC 8.6WABWestinghouse Air Brake Technologies CorporationQOC 8.9

Read investment analysis: RAIL · FSTR · CP · TRN · NSC · CSX · PNYG · UNP · WAB

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to GBX?

7 companies across all industries closest to GBX’s Quality of Company score of 8.0/10.

PRKSUnited Parks & Resorts Inc.QOC 8.0USACUSA Compression Partners, LPQOC 8.0SAHSonic Automotive, Inc.QOC 8.0SNXTD SYNNEX CorporationQOC 8.0DGDollar General CorporationQOC 8.0MKCMcCormick & Company, IncorporatedQOC 8.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PRKS · USAC · SAH · SNX · DG · MKC · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About The Greenbrier Companies, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is The Greenbrier Companies, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (GBX)'s intrinsic value at $76.24 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $11.57 to $201.90. The Quality of Company score is 8.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is GBX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $46.12, 6 of 10 active models suggest GBX may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $76.24, 65.3% above the current price of $46.12 — a consensus view that GBX is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits The Greenbrier Companies, Inc.'s business model in Railroads.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.0 mean for GBX?

The Greenbrier Companies, Inc.'s QOC of 8.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on GBX?

CirclFi analyzes GBX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on GBX?

Of the 10 models currently active on GBX, First Chicago is the most bullish at $201.90 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $11.57. CirclFi's published fair value for GBX is the median of that range, $76.24, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 250% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is GBX a value trap in 2026?

The Greenbrier Companies, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (GBX) has a median fair value of $76.24 — 65.3% above the current price of $46.12 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/GBX/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this GBX valuation
  • Financial statements: The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000923120) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for GBX as of ; valuations recomputed .

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