Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD) Fair Value 2026

SFD · Packaged Foods ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD) trades at $21.94, versus a $22.65 median fair value across its 11 active models — 3.2% above the current price. QOC: 7.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $38.69.

Key Facts

Ticker
SFD
Price
$21.94
Quality Score
7.9/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +76.3% upside with 66% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Is Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $22.65, within 3.2% of the current price of $21.94. Estimates range from $14.76 to $38.69. SFD scores 7.9/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. SFD’s +3.2% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Packaged Foods sector median is -16.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Smithfield Foods, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give SFD?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($21.94)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $38.69 +76.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $22.31 +1.7%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $23.81 +8.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $24.64 +12.3%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 7 additional models including EROIC Spread, Markov DDM, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 11 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is SFD's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $14.76 to $38.69

CirclFi's 11 active models place Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD) between $14.76 and $38.69 per share, a spread of 106% of the median. The median of that range — $22.65 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for SFD, against a current price of $21.94.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · Bayesian DCF
$14.76median $22.65$38.69
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$14.76
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$38.69
Model agreement5 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for SFD. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on SFD, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Smithfield Foods, Inc. presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $21.94. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $22.65 (+3.2% median upside), masking a wide model spread between the 5 bullish models and 3 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: Bayesian DCF targets $38.69 (+76.3%), versus Dynamic NAV at $14.76 (-32.7%). This +109.1% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About SFD?

11 of 13 models are currently active for SFD. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for SFD is $22.65 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $38.69 on its own, implying +76.3% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SFD Rank in Packaged Foods?

Among 84 Packaged Foods stocks, SFD ranks #17 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.9 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Packaged Foods Stocks →

As a consumer-facing company, Smithfield Foods, Inc. operates in a sector where same-store sales growth (comps) is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating SFD should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is SFD a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SFD a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Smithfield Foods, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Smithfield Foods, Inc. is rated at 7.9/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +109.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SFD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SFD's 11 active models, average confidence is 48%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Smithfield Foods, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Packaged Foods Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Packaged Foods stocks with 13-model coverage

MKCMcCormick & Company, IncorporatedQOC 8.0JBSSJohn B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc.QOC 7.9FTLFFitLife Brands, Inc.QOC 8.2LFVNLifeVantage CorporationQOC 7.9NATRNature's Sunshine Products, Inc.QOC 8.2FRPTFreshpet, Inc.QOC 7.9SJMThe J. M. Smucker CompanyQOC 6.4CLNNClene Inc.QOC 5.1BFCHBitFrontier Capital Holdings, Inc.QOC 2.9PPCPilgrim's Pride CorporationQOC 9.0JJSFJ&J Snack Foods Corp.QOC 8.9

Read investment analysis: MKC · JBSS · FTLF · LFVN · NATR · FRPT · SJM · CLNN · BFCH · PPC · JJSF

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to SFD?

7 companies across all industries closest to SFD’s Quality of Company score of 7.9/10.

PRVAPrivia Health Group, Inc.QOC 7.9JILLJ.Jill, Inc.QOC 7.9THFFFirst Financial CorporationQOC 7.9MSMMSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc.QOC 7.9FGF&G Annuities & Life, Inc.QOC 7.9FSTRL.B. Foster CompanyQOC 7.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PRVA · JILL · THFF · MSM · FG · FSTR · NVDA

Where Does SFD Sit in CirclFi's Packaged Foods Rankings?

SFD is ranked against every other Packaged Foods stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Packaged Foods stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Smithfield Foods, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Smithfield Foods, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD)'s intrinsic value at $22.65 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $14.76 to $38.69. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $38.69 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SFD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $21.94, 7 of 11 active models suggest SFD may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $22.65, within 3.2% of the current price of $21.94 — a consensus view that SFD is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Smithfield Foods, Inc.'s business model in Packaged Foods.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.9 mean for SFD?

Smithfield Foods, Inc.'s QOC of 7.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SFD?

CirclFi analyzes SFD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on SFD?

Of the 11 models currently active on SFD, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $38.69 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $14.76. CirclFi's published fair value for SFD is the median of that range, $22.65, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 106% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is SFD a value trap in 2026?

Smithfield Foods, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD) has a median fair value of $22.65 — within 3.2% of the current price of $21.94 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SFD/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this SFD valuation
  • Financial statements: Smithfield Foods, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000091388) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for SFD as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 11 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on SFD.

Unlock All 11 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

7 models hidden for SFD Unlock All 11 — $39/mo