Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) Fair Value 2026

HRL · Packaged Foods ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (19/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) trades at $21.57, versus a $22.59 median fair value across its 10 active models — 4.7% above the current price. QOC: 7.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 19/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $23.15.

Key Facts

Ticker
HRL
Price
$21.57
Quality Score
7.8/10
Value Trap Risk
19/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Earnings Power Value suggests +14.8% upside with 79% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (10/13) may reduce confidence

Is Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $22.59, within 4.7% of the current price of $21.57. Estimates range from $10.49 to $32.11. HRL scores 7.8/10 on fundamental quality and 19/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. HRL’s +4.7% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Packaged Foods sector median is -16.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Hormel Foods Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give HRL?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($21.57)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $23.15 +7.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $24.76 +14.8%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $22.02 +2.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $14.24 -34.0%
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What Is HRL's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $10.49 to $32.11

CirclFi's 10 active models place Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) between $10.49 and $32.11 per share, a spread of 96% of the median. The median of that range — $22.59 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for HRL, against a current price of $21.57.

Low · Sentiment SOTPHigh · RCMH-DCF
$10.49median $22.59$32.11
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelSentiment SOTP$10.49
Most bullish modelRCMH-DCF$32.11
Model agreement5 bullish · 4 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on HRL, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Hormel Foods Corporation presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $21.57. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $22.59 (+4.7% median upside), masking a wide model spread between the 5 bullish models and 4 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: RCMH-DCF targets $32.11 (+48.8%), versus Sentiment SOTP at $10.49 (-51.4%). This +100.2% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About HRL?

10 of 13 models are currently active for HRL. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for HRL is $22.59 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $23.15 on its own, implying +7.3% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HRL Rank in Packaged Foods?

Among 84 Packaged Foods stocks, HRL ranks #21 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.8 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Packaged Foods Stocks →

Hormel Foods Corporation's positioning within the Packaged Foods segment means that inventory turnover plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including omnichannel integration — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is HRL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HRL a score of 19/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Hormel Foods Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Hormel Foods Corporation scores 7.8 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +100.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HRL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HRL's 10 active models, average confidence is 57%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Hormel Foods Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Packaged Foods Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Packaged Foods stocks with 13-model coverage

FRPTFreshpet, Inc.QOC 7.9LWLamb Weston Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.8LFVNLifeVantage CorporationQOC 7.9JBSJBS N.V.QOC 7.5JBSSJohn B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc.QOC 7.9MICCThe Magnum Ice Cream Company N.V.QOC 7.5GISGeneral Mills, Inc.QOC 6.2CFOOChina Foods Holdings Ltd.QOC 5.1FAMIFarmmi, Inc.QOC 1.6PPCPilgrim's Pride CorporationQOC 9.0JJSFJ&J Snack Foods Corp.QOC 8.9

Read investment analysis: FRPT · LW · LFVN · JBS · JBSS · MICC · GIS · CFOO · FAMI · PPC · JJSF

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to HRL?

7 companies across all industries closest to HRL’s Quality of Company score of 7.8/10.

BANCBanc of California, Inc.QOC 7.8ESCAEscalade, IncorporatedQOC 7.8RCKYRocky Brands, Inc.QOC 7.8DTMDT Midstream, Inc.QOC 7.8ISTRInvestar Holding CorporationQOC 7.8BURLBurlington Stores, Inc.QOC 7.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BANC · ESCA · RCKY · DTM · ISTR · BURL · NVDA

Where Does HRL Sit in CirclFi's Packaged Foods Rankings?

HRL is ranked against every other Packaged Foods stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Packaged Foods stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Hormel Foods Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Hormel Foods Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL)'s intrinsic value at $22.59 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $10.49 to $32.11. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $23.15 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HRL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $21.57, 6 of 10 active models suggest HRL may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $22.59, within 4.7% of the current price of $21.57 — a consensus view that HRL is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Hormel Foods Corporation's business model in Packaged Foods.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.8 mean for HRL?

Hormel Foods Corporation's QOC of 7.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HRL?

CirclFi analyzes HRL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on HRL?

Of the 10 models currently active on HRL, RCMH-DCF is the most bullish at $32.11 per share, and Sentiment SOTP is the most bearish at $10.49. CirclFi's published fair value for HRL is the median of that range, $22.59, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 96% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is HRL a value trap in 2026?

Hormel Foods Corporation's Value Trap score is 19/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) has a median fair value of $22.59 — within 4.7% of the current price of $21.57 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/HRL/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this HRL valuation
  • Financial statements: Hormel Foods Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000048465) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for HRL as of ; valuations recomputed .

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