Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW) Fair Value 2026

LW · Packaged Foods ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (27/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW) trades at $54.98, versus a $32.32 median fair value across its 12 active models — 41.2% below the current price. QOC: 7.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 27/100 (LOW). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $4.24.

Key Facts

Ticker
LW
Price
$54.98
Quality Score
7.8/10
Value Trap Risk
27/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +12.3% upside with 63% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW) appears overvalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $32.32, 41.2% below the current price of $54.98. Estimates range from $4.24 to $61.73. LW scores 7.8/10 on fundamental quality and 27/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. LW’s -41.2% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Packaged Foods sector median is -16.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give LW?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($54.98)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $4.24 -92.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $35.49 -35.5%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $30.68 -44.2%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $61.73 +12.3%
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What Is LW's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $4.24 to $61.73

CirclFi's 12 active models place Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW) between $4.24 and $61.73 per share, a spread of 178% of the median. The median of that range — $32.32 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for LW, against a current price of $54.98.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · First Chicago
$4.24median $32.32$61.73
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$4.24
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$61.73
Model agreement2 bullish · 10 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for LW. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on LW, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $32.32, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $54.98. With 10 out of 12 models flagging downside (-41.2% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at +12.3% (fair value: $61.73), while Bayesian DCF is the most conservative at -92.3% ($4.24). The spread between these extremes — +104.6% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About LW?

12 of 13 models are currently active for LW. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for LW is $32.32 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $4.24 on its own, implying -92.3% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does LW Rank in Packaged Foods?

Among 84 Packaged Foods stocks, LW ranks #22 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.8 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Packaged Foods Stocks →

As a retail business, Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. operates in a sector where store traffic trends is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating LW should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is LW a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns LW a score of 27/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.8/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +104.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every LW valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across LW's 12 active models, average confidence is 55%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Packaged Foods Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Packaged Foods stocks with 13-model coverage

HRLHormel Foods CorporationQOC 7.8JBSJBS N.V.QOC 7.5FRPTFreshpet, Inc.QOC 7.9MICCThe Magnum Ice Cream Company N.V.QOC 7.5LFVNLifeVantage CorporationQOC 7.9USNAUSANA Health Sciences, Inc.QOC 7.5BRCCBRC Inc.QOC 6.1BRLSBorealis Foods Inc.QOC 5.1PPCPilgrim's Pride CorporationQOC 9.0JJSFJ&J Snack Foods Corp.QOC 8.9

Read investment analysis: HRL · JBS · FRPT · MICC · LFVN · USNA · BRCC · BRLS · PPC · JJSF

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to LW?

7 companies across all industries closest to LW’s Quality of Company score of 7.8/10.

PAXPatria Investments LimitedQOC 7.8EFXEquifax Inc.QOC 7.8MBCMasterBrand, Inc.QOC 7.8SHAKShake Shack Inc.QOC 7.8CBFVCB Financial Services, Inc.QOC 7.8APIAgora, Inc.QOC 7.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PAX · EFX · MBC · SHAK · CBFV · API · NVDA

Where Does LW Sit in CirclFi's Packaged Foods Rankings?

LW is ranked against every other Packaged Foods stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Packaged Foods stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW)'s intrinsic value at $32.32 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $4.24 to $61.73. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $4.24 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is LW overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $54.98, 2 of 12 active models suggest LW may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $32.32, 41.2% below the current price of $54.98 — a consensus view that LW is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Packaged Foods.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.8 mean for LW?

Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 7.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on LW?

CirclFi analyzes LW with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on LW?

Of the 12 models currently active on LW, First Chicago is the most bullish at $61.73 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $4.24. CirclFi's published fair value for LW is the median of that range, $32.32, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 178% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is LW a value trap in 2026?

Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 27/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW) has a median fair value of $32.32 — 41.2% below the current price of $54.98 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/LW/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this LW valuation
  • Financial statements: Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001679273) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for LW as of ; valuations recomputed .

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