The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) Fair Value 2026

KHC · Canned, Frozen & Preservd Fruit, Veg & Food Specialties ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (5/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) trades at $25.23, approximately 59% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $62.19. QOC: 8.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 5/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
KHC
Price
$25.23
Quality Score
8.2/10
Value Trap Risk
5/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +146.5% upside with 72% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($25.23)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$62.19 +146.5%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$34.77 +37.8%
CUCE Ensemble
Medium Conviction
$32.99 +30.8%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$17.02 -32.5%

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What Is The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, The Kraft Heinz Company's intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $27.45. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $25.23 (implied upside of +8.8%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 7 of 12 bullish models. Notably, Bayesian DCF sees the most upside at +146.5% (fair value: $62.19), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -97.9% ($0.53). The spread between these extremes — +244.4% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About KHC?

12 of 13 models are currently active for KHC. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates KHC's intrinsic value at $62.19, implying +146.5% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does KHC Rank in Canned, Frozen & Preservd Fruit, Veg & Food Specialties?

Among 5 Canned, Frozen & Preservd Fruit, Veg & Food Specialties stocks, KHC ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.2 places KHC in the top tier.

The Kraft Heinz Company's positioning within the Canned, Frozen & Preservd Fruit, Veg & Food Specialties segment means that customer lifetime value (CLV) plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including brand loyalty and pricing power — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is KHC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns KHC a score of 5/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for The Kraft Heinz Company. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, The Kraft Heinz Company scores 8.2 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +244.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every KHC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across KHC's 12 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy The Kraft Heinz Company Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Canned, Frozen & Preservd Fruit, Veg & Food Specialties Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

4 related Canned, Frozen & Preservd Fruit, Veg & Food Specialties stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: MZTI · LW · BRFH · PLAG

Frequently Asked Questions About The Kraft Heinz Company

What is The Kraft Heinz Company's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $62.19. The Quality of Company score is 8.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is KHC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $25.23, 7 of 12 active models suggest KHC may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits The Kraft Heinz Company's business model in Canned, Frozen & Preservd Fruit, Veg & Food Specialties.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.2 mean for KHC?

The Kraft Heinz Company's QOC of 8.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on KHC?

CirclFi analyzes KHC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is KHC a value trap in 2026?

The Kraft Heinz Company's Value Trap score is 5/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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