The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) Fair Value 2026

KHC · Packaged Foods ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (9/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) trades at $22.03, versus a $49.46 median fair value across its 7 active models — 124.5% above the current price. QOC: 6.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 9/100 (SAFE). 7/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $121.95.

Key Facts

Ticker
KHC
Price
$22.03
Quality Score
6.9/10
Value Trap Risk
9/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +453.6% upside with 76% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (7/13) may reduce confidence

Is The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) appears undervalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $49.46, 124.5% above the current price of $22.03. Estimates range from $28.91 to $121.95. KHC scores 6.9/10 on fundamental quality and 9/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. KHC’s +124.5% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Packaged Foods sector median is -11.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy The Kraft Heinz Company Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give KHC?

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($22.03)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $121.95 +453.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $43.87 +99.1%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $56.58 +156.8%
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What Is KHC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 7 independent models · $28.91 to $121.95

CirclFi's 7 active models place The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) between $28.91 and $121.95 per share, a spread of 188% of the median. The median of that range — $49.46 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for KHC, against a current price of $22.03.

Low · Regime CrossHigh · Bayesian DCF
$28.91median $49.46$121.95
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$28.91
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$121.95
Model agreement7 bullish · 0 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for KHC. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on KHC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, The Kraft Heinz Company's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $49.46. At a current market price of $22.03, 7 of 7 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting a median implied return of +124.5%. Notably, Bayesian DCF sees the most upside at +453.6% (fair value: $121.95), while Regime Cross is the most conservative at +31.2% ($28.91). The spread between these extremes — +422.4% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About KHC?

7 of 13 models are currently active for KHC. All 7 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for KHC is $49.46 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $121.95 on its own, implying +453.6% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does KHC Rank in Packaged Foods?

Among 85 Packaged Foods stocks, KHC ranks #33 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.9 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Packaged Foods Stocks →

The Kraft Heinz Company's positioning within the Packaged Foods segment means that customer lifetime value (CLV) plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including brand loyalty and pricing power — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is KHC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns KHC a score of 9/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for The Kraft Heinz Company. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, The Kraft Heinz Company scores 6.9 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +422.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every KHC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across KHC's 7 active models, average confidence is 50%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy The Kraft Heinz Company Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Packaged Foods Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Packaged Foods stocks with 13-model coverage

LSFLaird Superfood, Inc.QOC 6.9INBPIntegrated BioPharma, Inc.QOC 6.6JVACoffee Holding Co., Inc.QOC 7.1BRIDBridgford Foods CorporationQOC 6.4CPBThe Campbell's CompanyQOC 7.2UTZUtz Brands, Inc.QOC 6.4RKDAArcadia Biosciences, Inc.QOC 5.5ARRTArtisan Consumer Goods, Inc.QOC 4.1MALGMicroalliance Group Inc.QOC 8.3PPCPilgrim's Pride CorporationQOC 9.0JJSFJ&J Snack Foods Corp.QOC 8.9

Read investment analysis: LSF · INBP · JVA · BRID · CPB · UTZ · RKDA · ARRT · MALG · PPC · JJSF

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to KHC?

7 companies across all industries closest to KHC’s Quality of Company score of 6.9/10.

GSATGlobalstar, Inc.QOC 6.9AEHRAehr Test Systems, Inc.QOC 6.9MSBBMercer Bancorp, Inc.QOC 6.9HRIHerc Holdings Inc.QOC 6.9ATECAlphatec Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.9STRSStratus Properties Inc.QOC 6.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: GSAT · AEHR · MSBB · HRI · ATEC · STRS · NVDA

Where Does KHC Sit in CirclFi's Packaged Foods Rankings?

KHC is ranked against every other Packaged Foods stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Packaged Foods stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About The Kraft Heinz Company’s Valuation?

What is The Kraft Heinz Company's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC)'s intrinsic value at $49.46 — the median of 7 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $28.91 to $121.95. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $121.95 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is KHC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $22.03, 7 of 7 active models suggest KHC may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $49.46, 124.5% above the current price of $22.03 — a consensus view that KHC is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits The Kraft Heinz Company's business model in Packaged Foods.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.9 mean for KHC?

The Kraft Heinz Company's QOC of 6.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on KHC?

CirclFi analyzes KHC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on KHC?

Of the 7 models currently active on KHC, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $121.95 per share, and Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bearish at $28.91. CirclFi's published fair value for KHC is the median of that range, $49.46, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 188% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is KHC a value trap in 2026?

The Kraft Heinz Company's Value Trap score is 9/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) has a median fair value of $49.46 — 124.5% above the current price of $22.03 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/KHC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this KHC valuation
  • Financial statements: The Kraft Heinz Company 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001637459) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for KHC as of ; valuations recomputed .

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