Arcadia Biosciences, Inc. (RKDA) Fair Value 2026

RKDA · Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (30/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Arcadia Biosciences, Inc. (RKDA) trades at $0.66, approximately 62% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $0.41. QOC: 5.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 30/100 (LOW). 9/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
RKDA
Price
$0.66
Quality Score
5.6/10
Value Trap Risk
30/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +338.9% upside with 22% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (9/13) may reduce confidence

Is Arcadia Biosciences, Inc. (RKDA) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Arcadia Biosciences, Inc. (RKDA) appears undervalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $0.92, 38.9% above the current price of $0.66. Estimates range from $0.34 to $3.79. RKDA scores 5.6/10 on fundamental quality and 30/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Arcadia Biosciences, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($0.66)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
$0.41 -38.4%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
$0.34 -47.9%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$1.99 +201.7%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$2.90 +338.9%

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What Is Arcadia Biosciences, Inc. (RKDA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Arcadia Biosciences, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $1.45, suggesting a +118.7% average upside from the current price of $0.66. While 6 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 3 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: ML-RIV targets $3.79 (+473.4%), versus EPV at $0.34 (-47.9%). This +521.2% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About RKDA?

9 of 13 models are currently active for RKDA. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates RKDA's intrinsic value at $0.41, implying -38.4% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does RKDA Rank in Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas?

Among 80 Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas stocks, RKDA ranks #58 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.6 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas Stocks →

The Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas sector introduces analytical considerations specific to energy producer businesses. For Arcadia Biosciences, Inc., metrics like debt-to-EBITDAX provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is RKDA a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns RKDA a score of 30/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Arcadia Biosciences, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Arcadia Biosciences, Inc. scores 5.6 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +521.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every RKDA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across RKDA's 9 active models, average confidence is 22%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Arcadia Biosciences, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: EOG · MGY · HESM · PR · FANG

See all Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Arcadia Biosciences, Inc.

What is Arcadia Biosciences, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Arcadia Biosciences, Inc. (RKDA) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $0.41. The Quality of Company score is 5.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is RKDA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $0.66, 6 of 9 active models suggest RKDA may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $0.92, 38.9% above the current price of $0.66 — a consensus view that RKDA is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Arcadia Biosciences, Inc.'s business model in Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.6 mean for RKDA?

Arcadia Biosciences, Inc.'s QOC of 5.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on RKDA?

CirclFi analyzes RKDA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is RKDA a value trap in 2026?

Arcadia Biosciences, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 30/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Arcadia Biosciences, Inc. (RKDA) has a median fair value of $0.92 — 38.9% above the current price of $0.66 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/RKDA/ · Methodology

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