Nomad Foods Limited (NOMD) Fair Value 2026

NOMD · Food and Kindred Products ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

(—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Nomad Foods Limited (NOMD) trades at $11.48, approximately 70% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $38.01. QOC: 8.4/10. 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
NOMD
Price
$11.48
Quality Score
8.4/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +231.1% upside with 71% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($11.48)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$38.01 +231.1%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$24.44 +112.9%
CUCE Ensemble
Medium Conviction
$22.12 +92.7%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$26.70 +132.6%

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What Is Nomad Foods Limited (NOMD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Nomad Foods Limited is potentially undervalued at its current price of $11.48. Based on our 13-model framework, Nomad Foods Limited's intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $21.15 — representing +84.2% implied upside — with 10 out of 12 active models confirming this thesis. Model dispersion is worth noting: Bayesian DCF targets $38.01 (+231.1%), versus Markov DDM at $6.21 (-45.9%). This +276.9% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About NOMD?

12 of 13 models are currently active for NOMD. Of these, 10 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates NOMD's intrinsic value at $38.01, implying +231.1% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NOMD Rank in Food and Kindred Products?

Among 22 Food and Kindred Products stocks, NOMD ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.4 places NOMD in the top tier.

Nomad Foods Limited's positioning within the Food and Kindred Products segment means that store traffic trends plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including geographic expansion — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is NOMD a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for NOMD. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Nomad Foods Limited. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Nomad Foods Limited earns a quality score of 8.4/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +276.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NOMD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NOMD's 12 active models, average confidence is 53%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Nomad Foods Limited Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Food and Kindred Products Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Food and Kindred Products stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: VITL · BRBR · CPB · FLO · MDLZ

Frequently Asked Questions About Nomad Foods Limited

What is Nomad Foods Limited's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Nomad Foods Limited (NOMD) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $38.01. The Quality of Company score is 8.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NOMD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $11.48, 10 of 12 active models suggest NOMD may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Nomad Foods Limited's business model in Food and Kindred Products.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.4 mean for NOMD?

Nomad Foods Limited's QOC of 8.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NOMD?

CirclFi analyzes NOMD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is NOMD a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for NOMD at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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