Nomad Foods Limited (NOMD) Fair Value 2026

NOMD · Packaged Foods ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Nomad Foods Limited (NOMD) trades at $11.99, versus a $23.23 median fair value across its 10 active models — 93.7% above the current price. QOC: 7.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $41.05.

Key Facts

Ticker
NOMD
Price
$11.99
Quality Score
7.2/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +242.4% upside with 71% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (10/13) may reduce confidence

Is Nomad Foods Limited (NOMD) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Nomad Foods Limited (NOMD) appears undervalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $23.23, 93.7% above the current price of $11.99. Estimates range from $9.06 to $41.43. NOMD scores 7.2/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. NOMD’s +93.7% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Packaged Foods sector median is -16.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Nomad Foods Limited Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NOMD?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($11.99)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $41.05 +242.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $31.36 +161.5%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $25.64 +113.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $21.71 +81.1%
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What Is NOMD's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $9.06 to $41.43

CirclFi's 10 active models place Nomad Foods Limited (NOMD) between $9.06 and $41.43 per share, a spread of 139% of the median. The median of that range — $23.23 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NOMD, against a current price of $11.99.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · RCMH-DCF
$9.06median $23.23$41.43
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$9.06
Most bullish modelRCMH-DCF$41.43
Model agreement8 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for NOMD. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NOMD, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Nomad Foods Limited (NOMD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Nomad Foods Limited is potentially undervalued at its current price of $11.99. Based on our 13-model framework, Nomad Foods Limited's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $23.23 — representing +93.7% implied upside — with 8 out of 10 active models confirming this thesis. Model dispersion is worth noting: RCMH-DCF targets $41.43 (+245.6%), versus Markov DDM at $9.06 (-24.4%). This +270.0% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About NOMD?

10 of 13 models are currently active for NOMD. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for NOMD is $23.23 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $41.05 on its own, implying +242.4% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NOMD Rank in Packaged Foods?

Among 81 Packaged Foods stocks, NOMD ranks #28 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.2 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Packaged Foods Stocks →

Nomad Foods Limited's positioning within the Packaged Foods segment means that store traffic trends plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including geographic expansion — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is NOMD a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NOMD a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Nomad Foods Limited. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Nomad Foods Limited earns a quality score of 7.2/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +270.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NOMD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NOMD's 10 active models, average confidence is 56%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Nomad Foods Limited Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Packaged Foods Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Packaged Foods stocks with 13-model coverage

CPBThe Campbell's CompanyQOC 7.3JVACoffee Holding Co., Inc.QOC 7.0HLFHerbalife Ltd.QOC 7.3KHCThe Kraft Heinz CompanyQOC 6.9INBPIntegrated BioPharma, Inc.QOC 7.4LSFLaird Superfood, Inc.QOC 6.9WESTWestrock Coffee CompanyQOC 5.6SRXHSRX Global Inc.QOC 4.5MZTIThe Marzetti CompanyQOC 8.4PPCPilgrim's Pride CorporationQOC 9.0JJSFJ&J Snack Foods Corp.QOC 8.9

Read investment analysis: CPB · JVA · HLF · KHC · INBP · LSF · WEST · SRXH · MZTI · PPC · JJSF

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NOMD?

7 companies across all industries closest to NOMD’s Quality of Company score of 7.2/10.

MAMOMassimo GroupQOC 7.2ECBKECB Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.2UEUrban Edge PropertiesQOC 7.2PZZAPapa John's International, Inc.QOC 7.2BNSThe Bank of Nova ScotiaQOC 7.2SUPNSupernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 7.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: MAMO · ECBK · UE · PZZA · BNS · SUPN · NVDA

Where Does NOMD Sit in CirclFi's Packaged Foods Rankings?

NOMD is ranked against every other Packaged Foods stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Packaged Foods stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Nomad Foods Limited’s Valuation?

What is Nomad Foods Limited's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Nomad Foods Limited (NOMD)'s intrinsic value at $23.23 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $9.06 to $41.43. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $41.05 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NOMD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $11.99, 8 of 10 active models suggest NOMD may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $23.23, 93.7% above the current price of $11.99 — a consensus view that NOMD is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Nomad Foods Limited's business model in Packaged Foods.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.2 mean for NOMD?

Nomad Foods Limited's QOC of 7.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NOMD?

CirclFi analyzes NOMD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NOMD?

Of the 10 models currently active on NOMD, RCMH-DCF is the most bullish at $41.43 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $9.06. CirclFi's published fair value for NOMD is the median of that range, $23.23, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 139% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NOMD a value trap in 2026?

Nomad Foods Limited's Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Nomad Foods Limited (NOMD) has a median fair value of $23.23 — 93.7% above the current price of $11.99 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NOMD/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NOMD valuation
  • Financial statements: Nomad Foods Limited 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001651717) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NOMD as of ; valuations recomputed .

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