Herbalife Ltd. (HLF) Fair Value 2026

HLF · Packaged Foods ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Herbalife Ltd. (HLF) trades at $12.35, versus a $31.40 median fair value across its 9 active models — 154.2% above the current price. QOC: 7.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $25.60.

Key Facts

Ticker
HLF
Price
$12.35
Quality Score
7.3/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +163.4% upside with 16% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (9/13) may reduce confidence

Is Herbalife Ltd. (HLF) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Herbalife Ltd. (HLF) appears undervalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $31.40, 154.2% above the current price of $12.35. Estimates range from $8.23 to $52.05. HLF scores 7.3/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. HLF’s +154.2% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Packaged Foods sector median is -16.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Herbalife Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give HLF?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($12.35)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $25.60 +107.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $28.28 +129.0%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $32.53 +163.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $8.23 -33.4%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 5 additional models including PWERM, Regime Cross-Sectional, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 9 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is HLF's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $8.23 to $52.05

CirclFi's 9 active models place Herbalife Ltd. (HLF) between $8.23 and $52.05 per share, a spread of 140% of the median. The median of that range — $31.40 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for HLF, against a current price of $12.35.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$8.23median $31.40$52.05
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$8.23
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$52.05
Model agreement8 bullish · 1 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for HLF. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on HLF, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Herbalife Ltd. (HLF) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Herbalife Ltd. is potentially undervalued at its current price of $12.35. Based on our 13-model framework, Herbalife Ltd.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $31.40 — representing +154.2% implied upside — with 8 out of 9 active models confirming this thesis. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $52.05 (+321.5%), versus EROIC at $8.23 (-33.4%). This +354.9% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About HLF?

9 of 13 models are currently active for HLF. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for HLF is $31.40 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $25.60 on its own, implying +107.3% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HLF Rank in Packaged Foods?

Among 81 Packaged Foods stocks, HLF ranks #26 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.3 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Packaged Foods Stocks →

Herbalife Ltd.'s positioning within the Packaged Foods segment means that brand equity index plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including consumer spending resilience — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is HLF a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HLF a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Herbalife Ltd.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Herbalife Ltd. scores 7.3 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +354.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HLF valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HLF's 9 active models, average confidence is 50%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Herbalife Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Packaged Foods Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Packaged Foods stocks with 13-model coverage

INBPIntegrated BioPharma, Inc.QOC 7.4CPBThe Campbell's CompanyQOC 7.3USNAUSANA Health Sciences, Inc.QOC 7.5NOMDNomad Foods LimitedQOC 7.2MICCThe Magnum Ice Cream Company N.V.QOC 7.5JVACoffee Holding Co., Inc.QOC 7.0PREPrenetics Global LimitedQOC 5.6SNBHSentient Brands Holdings Inc.QOC 4.5BABBBAB, Inc.QOC 8.6PPCPilgrim's Pride CorporationQOC 9.0JJSFJ&J Snack Foods Corp.QOC 8.9

Read investment analysis: INBP · CPB · USNA · NOMD · MICC · JVA · PRE · SNBH · BABB · PPC · JJSF

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to HLF?

7 companies across all industries closest to HLF’s Quality of Company score of 7.3/10.

ESBAEmpire State Realty OP, L.P.QOC 7.3AEYEAudioEye, Inc.QOC 7.3MRTNMarten Transport, Ltd.QOC 7.3CNPCenterPoint Energy, Inc.QOC 7.3VGVenture Global, Inc.QOC 7.3HSICHenry Schein, Inc.QOC 7.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ESBA · AEYE · MRTN · CNP · VG · HSIC · NVDA

Where Does HLF Sit in CirclFi's Packaged Foods Rankings?

HLF is ranked against every other Packaged Foods stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Packaged Foods stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Herbalife Ltd.’s Valuation?

What is Herbalife Ltd.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Herbalife Ltd. (HLF)'s intrinsic value at $31.40 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $8.23 to $52.05. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $25.60 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HLF overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $12.35, 8 of 9 active models suggest HLF may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $31.40, 154.2% above the current price of $12.35 — a consensus view that HLF is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Herbalife Ltd.'s business model in Packaged Foods.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.3 mean for HLF?

Herbalife Ltd.'s QOC of 7.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HLF?

CirclFi analyzes HLF with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on HLF?

Of the 9 models currently active on HLF, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $52.05 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $8.23. CirclFi's published fair value for HLF is the median of that range, $31.40, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 140% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is HLF a value trap in 2026?

Herbalife Ltd.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Herbalife Ltd. (HLF) has a median fair value of $31.40 — 154.2% above the current price of $12.35 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/HLF/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this HLF valuation
  • Financial statements: Herbalife Ltd. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001180262) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for HLF as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 9 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on HLF.

Unlock All 9 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

5 models hidden for HLF Unlock All 9 — $39/mo