Ingredion Incorporated (INGR) Fair Value 2026

INGR · Packaged Foods ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Ingredion Incorporated (INGR) trades at $104.62, versus a $117.62 median fair value across its 12 active models — 12.4% above the current price. QOC: 8.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $79.49.

Key Facts

Ticker
INGR
Price
$104.62
Quality Score
8.8/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +10.7% upside with 27% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Is Ingredion Incorporated (INGR) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Ingredion Incorporated (INGR) appears undervalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $117.62, 12.4% above the current price of $104.62. Estimates range from $28.55 to $205.30. INGR scores 8.8/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. INGR’s +12.4% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Packaged Foods sector median is -16.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Ingredion Incorporated Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give INGR?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($104.62)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $79.49 -24.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $101.95 -2.6%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $115.79 +10.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $106.58 +1.9%
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What Is INGR's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $28.55 to $205.30

CirclFi's 12 active models place Ingredion Incorporated (INGR) between $28.55 and $205.30 per share, a spread of 150% of the median. The median of that range — $117.62 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for INGR, against a current price of $104.62.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · PWERM
$28.55median $117.62$205.30
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$28.55
Most bullish modelPWERM$205.30
Model agreement7 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for INGR. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on INGR, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Ingredion Incorporated (INGR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ingredion Incorporated's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $117.62. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $104.62 (implied upside of +12.4%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 7 of 12 bullish models. Notably, PWERM sees the most upside at +96.2% (fair value: $205.30), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -72.7% ($28.55). The spread between these extremes — +168.9% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About INGR?

12 of 13 models are currently active for INGR. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for INGR is $117.62 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $79.49 on its own, implying -24.0% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does INGR Rank in Packaged Foods?

Among 84 Packaged Foods stocks, INGR ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.8 places INGR in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Packaged Foods Stocks →

Ingredion Incorporated's positioning within the Packaged Foods segment means that brand equity index plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including brand loyalty and pricing power — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is INGR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns INGR a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Ingredion Incorporated. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Ingredion Incorporated earns a quality score of 8.8/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +168.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every INGR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across INGR's 12 active models, average confidence is 57%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Ingredion Incorporated Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Packaged Foods Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Packaged Foods stocks with 13-model coverage

JJSFJ&J Snack Foods Corp.QOC 8.9MAMAMama's Creations, Inc.QOC 8.8PPCPilgrim's Pride CorporationQOC 9.0BABBBAB, Inc.QOC 8.6FAMIFarmmi, Inc.QOC 1.6SMPLThe Simply Good Foods CompanyQOC 8.5MICCThe Magnum Ice Cream Company N.V.QOC 7.5CYANCyanotech CorporationQOC 5.8LIMXLimitless X Holdings Inc.QOC 5.0

Read investment analysis: JJSF · MAMA · PPC · BABB · FAMI · SMPL · MICC · CYAN · LIMX

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to INGR?

7 companies across all industries closest to INGR’s Quality of Company score of 8.8/10.

PEverpure, Inc.QOC 8.8SNPSSynopsys, Inc.QOC 8.8ABTAbbott LaboratoriesQOC 8.8TTDThe Trade Desk, Inc.QOC 8.8HWKNHawkins, Inc.QOC 8.8TWLOTwilio Inc.QOC 8.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: P · SNPS · ABT · TTD · HWKN · TWLO · NVDA

Where Does INGR Sit in CirclFi's Packaged Foods Rankings?

INGR is ranked against every other Packaged Foods stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Packaged Foods stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Ingredion Incorporated’s Valuation?

What is Ingredion Incorporated's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Ingredion Incorporated (INGR)'s intrinsic value at $117.62 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $28.55 to $205.30. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $79.49 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is INGR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $104.62, 8 of 12 active models suggest INGR may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $117.62, 12.4% above the current price of $104.62 — a consensus view that INGR is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Ingredion Incorporated's business model in Packaged Foods.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.8 mean for INGR?

Ingredion Incorporated's QOC of 8.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on INGR?

CirclFi analyzes INGR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on INGR?

Of the 12 models currently active on INGR, PWERM is the most bullish at $205.30 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $28.55. CirclFi's published fair value for INGR is the median of that range, $117.62, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 150% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is INGR a value trap in 2026?

Ingredion Incorporated's Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Ingredion Incorporated (INGR) has a median fair value of $117.62 — 12.4% above the current price of $104.62 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/INGR/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this INGR valuation
  • Financial statements: Ingredion Incorporated 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001046257) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for INGR as of ; valuations recomputed .

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