Mama's Creations, Inc. (MAMA) Fair Value 2026

MAMA · Packaged Foods ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (25/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Mama's Creations, Inc. (MAMA) trades at $12.73, versus a $4.93 median fair value across its 9 active models — 61.2% below the current price. QOC: 8.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 25/100 (LOW). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $5.41.

Key Facts

Ticker
MAMA
Price
$12.73
Quality Score
8.7/10
Value Trap Risk
25/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.7/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Mama's Creations, Inc. (MAMA) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Mama's Creations, Inc. (MAMA) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $4.93, 61.2% below the current price of $12.73. Estimates range from $2.49 to $7.35. MAMA scores 8.7/10 on fundamental quality and 25/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. MAMA’s -61.2% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Packaged Foods sector median is -11.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Mama's Creations, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MAMA?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($12.73)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $5.41 -57.5%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $4.93 -61.2%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $6.49 -49.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $3.81 -70.1%
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What Is MAMA's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $2.49 to $7.35

CirclFi's 9 active models place Mama's Creations, Inc. (MAMA) between $2.49 and $7.35 per share, a spread of 98% of the median. The median of that range — $4.93 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MAMA, against a current price of $12.73.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$2.49median $4.93$7.35
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$2.49
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$7.35
Model agreement0 bullish · 9 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MAMA, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Mama's Creations, Inc. (MAMA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Mama's Creations, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $4.93. Trading at its current price of $12.73, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 9 of 9 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -61.2%. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $7.35 (-42.3%), versus ML-RIV at $2.49 (-80.4%). This +38.1% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About MAMA?

9 of 13 models are currently active for MAMA. All 9 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for MAMA is $4.93 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $5.41 on its own, implying -57.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MAMA Rank in Packaged Foods?

Among 85 Packaged Foods stocks, MAMA ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.7 places MAMA in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Packaged Foods Stocks →

Mama's Creations, Inc.'s positioning within the Packaged Foods segment means that e-commerce penetration rate plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including brand loyalty and pricing power — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is MAMA a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MAMA a score of 25/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Mama's Creations, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Mama's Creations, Inc. earns a quality score of 8.7/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +38.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MAMA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MAMA's 9 active models, average confidence is 51%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Mama's Creations, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Packaged Foods Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Packaged Foods stocks with 13-model coverage

INGRIngredion IncorporatedQOC 8.8NAGENiagen Bioscience, Inc.QOC 8.6JJSFJ&J Snack Foods Corp.QOC 8.9BABBBAB, Inc.QOC 8.6PPCPilgrim's Pride CorporationQOC 9.0SMPLThe Simply Good Foods CompanyQOC 8.5USNAUSANA Health Sciences, Inc.QOC 7.5UMEWUMeWorld Inc.QOC 5.8LIMXLimitless X Holdings Inc.QOC 5.0

Read investment analysis: INGR · NAGE · JJSF · BABB · PPC · SMPL · USNA · UMEW · LIMX

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MAMA?

7 companies across all industries closest to MAMA’s Quality of Company score of 8.7/10.

SELFGlobal Self Storage, Inc.QOC 8.7AMZNAmazon.com, Inc.QOC 8.7PTCTPTC Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 8.7CHHChoice Hotels International, Inc.QOC 8.7BROSDutch Bros Inc.QOC 8.7ULTAUlta Beauty, Inc.QOC 8.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SELF · AMZN · PTCT · CHH · BROS · ULTA · NVDA

Where Does MAMA Sit in CirclFi's Packaged Foods Rankings?

MAMA is ranked against every other Packaged Foods stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Packaged Foods stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Mama's Creations, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Mama's Creations, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Mama's Creations, Inc. (MAMA)'s intrinsic value at $4.93 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $2.49 to $7.35. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $5.41 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MAMA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $12.73, 0 of 9 active models suggest MAMA may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $4.93, 61.2% below the current price of $12.73 — a consensus view that MAMA is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Mama's Creations, Inc.'s business model in Packaged Foods.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.7 mean for MAMA?

Mama's Creations, Inc.'s QOC of 8.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MAMA?

CirclFi analyzes MAMA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MAMA?

Of the 9 models currently active on MAMA, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $7.35 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $2.49. CirclFi's published fair value for MAMA is the median of that range, $4.93, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 98% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MAMA a value trap in 2026?

Mama's Creations, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 25/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Mama's Creations, Inc. (MAMA) has a median fair value of $4.93 — 61.2% below the current price of $12.73 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MAMA/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MAMA valuation
  • Financial statements: Mama's Creations, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001520358) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MAMA as of ; valuations recomputed .

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