Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS) Fair Value 2026

BROS · Restaurants ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS) trades at $50.71, versus a $15.61 median fair value across its 6 active models — 69.2% below the current price. QOC: 8.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
BROS
Price
$50.71
Quality Score
8.7/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.7/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $15.61, 69.2% below the current price of $50.71. Estimates range from $0.61 to $34.55. BROS scores 8.7/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. BROS’s -69.2% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Restaurants sector median is -18.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Dutch Bros Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give BROS?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($50.71)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $15.64 -69.2%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $16.22 -68.0%
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $34.55 -31.9%
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What Is BROS's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $0.61 to $34.55

CirclFi's 6 active models place Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS) between $0.61 and $34.55 per share, a spread of 217% of the median. The median of that range — $15.61 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for BROS, against a current price of $50.71.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$0.61median $15.61$34.55
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$0.61
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$34.55
Model agreement0 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for BROS. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on BROS, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Dutch Bros Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $15.61. Trading at its current price of $50.71, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 6 of 6 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -69.2%. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at -31.9% (fair value: $34.55), while EROIC is the most conservative at -98.8% ($0.61). The spread between these extremes — +66.9% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About BROS?

6 of 13 models are currently active for BROS. All 6 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for BROS is $15.61 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BROS Rank in Restaurants?

Among 55 Restaurants stocks, BROS ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.7 places BROS in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Restaurants Stocks →

Dutch Bros Inc.'s positioning within the Restaurants segment means that customer lifetime value (CLV) plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including omnichannel integration — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is BROS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BROS a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Dutch Bros Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Dutch Bros Inc. earns a quality score of 8.7/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +66.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BROS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BROS's 6 active models, average confidence is 31%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Dutch Bros Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Restaurants Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Restaurants stocks with 13-model coverage

BDLFlanigan's Enterprises, Inc.QOC 8.8RAVERave Restaurant Group, Inc.QOC 8.5WINGWingstop Inc.QOC 8.9CAKEThe Cheesecake Factory IncorporatedQOC 8.5TXRHTexas Roadhouse, Inc.QOC 9.1ARCOArcos Dorados Holdings Inc.QOC 8.5CBRLCracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc.QOC 7.9CAVACAVA Group, Inc.QOC 6.9CNNECannae Holdings, Inc.QOC 5.2EATBrinker International, Inc.QOC 9.3CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.QOC 9.2

Read investment analysis: BDL · RAVE · WING · CAKE · TXRH · ARCO · CBRL · CAVA · CNNE · EAT · CMG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to BROS?

7 companies across all industries closest to BROS’s Quality of Company score of 8.7/10.

NHCNational HealthCare CorporationQOC 8.7AMDAdvanced Micro Devices, Inc.QOC 8.7NWPPNew Peoples Bankshares, Inc.QOC 8.7SELFGlobal Self Storage, Inc.QOC 8.7PTCTPTC Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 8.7DDOGDatadog, Inc.QOC 8.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: NHC · AMD · NWPP · SELF · PTCT · DDOG · NVDA

Where Does BROS Sit in CirclFi's Restaurants Rankings?

BROS is ranked against every other Restaurants stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Restaurants stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Dutch Bros Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Dutch Bros Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS)'s intrinsic value at $15.61 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $0.61 to $34.55. The Quality of Company score is 8.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BROS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $50.71, 0 of 6 active models suggest BROS may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $15.61, 69.2% below the current price of $50.71 — a consensus view that BROS is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Dutch Bros Inc.'s business model in Restaurants.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.7 mean for BROS?

Dutch Bros Inc.'s QOC of 8.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BROS?

CirclFi analyzes BROS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on BROS?

Of the 6 models currently active on BROS, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $34.55 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $0.61. CirclFi's published fair value for BROS is the median of that range, $15.61, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 217% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is BROS a value trap in 2026?

Dutch Bros Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS) has a median fair value of $15.61 — 69.2% below the current price of $50.71 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BROS/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this BROS valuation
  • Financial statements: Dutch Bros Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001866581) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for BROS as of ; valuations recomputed .

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