Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) Fair Value 2026

SBUX · Restaurants ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (19/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) trades at $96.11, versus a $33.04 median fair value across its 10 active models — 65.6% below the current price. QOC: 7.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 19/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $12.17.

Key Facts

Ticker
SBUX
Price
$96.11
Quality Score
7.4/10
Value Trap Risk
19/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +6.5% upside with 64% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $33.04, 65.6% below the current price of $96.11. Estimates range from $4.58 to $102.37. SBUX scores 7.4/10 on fundamental quality and 19/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. SBUX’s -65.6% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Restaurants sector median is -11.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Starbucks Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give SBUX?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($96.11)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $12.17 -87.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $27.04 -71.9%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $34.67 -63.9%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $102.37 +6.5%
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What Is SBUX's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $4.58 to $102.37

CirclFi's 10 active models place Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) between $4.58 and $102.37 per share, a spread of 296% of the median. The median of that range — $33.04 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for SBUX, against a current price of $96.11.

Low · EROICHigh · First Chicago
$4.58median $33.04$102.37
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$4.58
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$102.37
Model agreement1 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for SBUX. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on SBUX, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Starbucks Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $33.04. Trading at its current price of $96.11, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 8 of 10 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -65.6%. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at +6.5% (fair value: $102.37), while EROIC is the most conservative at -95.2% ($4.58). The spread between these extremes — +101.8% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About SBUX?

10 of 13 models are currently active for SBUX. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for SBUX is $33.04 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $12.17 on its own, implying -87.3% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SBUX Rank in Restaurants?

Among 56 Restaurants stocks, SBUX ranks #25 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.4 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Restaurants Stocks →

The Restaurants sector introduces analytical considerations specific to retail business businesses. For Starbucks Corporation, metrics like brand equity index provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is SBUX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SBUX a score of 19/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Starbucks Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Starbucks Corporation scores 7.4 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +101.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SBUX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SBUX's 10 active models, average confidence is 54%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Starbucks Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Restaurants Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Restaurants stocks with 13-model coverage

NROMNoble Roman's, Inc.QOC 7.4GTIMGood Times Restaurants Inc.QOC 7.4LOCOEl Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.6PZZAPapa John's International, Inc.QOC 7.2QSRRestaurant Brands International Inc.QOC 7.6DINDine Brands Global, Inc.QOC 7.1SGSweetgreen, Inc.QOC 5.9JMKEJersey Mike's Subs Inc.QOC 3.9MCDMcDonald's CorporationQOC 8.3EATBrinker International, Inc.QOC 9.3CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.QOC 9.2

Read investment analysis: NROM · GTIM · LOCO · PZZA · QSR · DIN · SG · JMKE · MCD · EAT · CMG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to SBUX?

7 companies across all industries closest to SBUX’s Quality of Company score of 7.4/10.

MRXMarex Group LimitedQOC 7.4FPIFarmland Partners Inc.QOC 7.4BATLBattalion Oil CorporationQOC 7.4BXCBlueLinx Holdings Inc.QOC 7.4NSLRNeostellar Capital Corp.QOC 7.4MRBKMeridian CorporationQOC 7.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: MRX · FPI · BATL · BXC · NSLR · MRBK · NVDA

Where Does SBUX Sit in CirclFi's Restaurants Rankings?

SBUX is ranked against every other Restaurants stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Restaurants stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Starbucks Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Starbucks Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Starbucks Corporation (SBUX)'s intrinsic value at $33.04 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $4.58 to $102.37. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $12.17 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SBUX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $96.11, 1 of 10 active models suggest SBUX may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $33.04, 65.6% below the current price of $96.11 — a consensus view that SBUX is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Starbucks Corporation's business model in Restaurants.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.4 mean for SBUX?

Starbucks Corporation's QOC of 7.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SBUX?

CirclFi analyzes SBUX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on SBUX?

Of the 10 models currently active on SBUX, First Chicago is the most bullish at $102.37 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $4.58. CirclFi's published fair value for SBUX is the median of that range, $33.04, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 296% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is SBUX a value trap in 2026?

Starbucks Corporation's Value Trap score is 19/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) has a median fair value of $33.04 — 65.6% below the current price of $96.11 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SBUX/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this SBUX valuation
  • Financial statements: Starbucks Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000829224) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for SBUX as of ; valuations recomputed .

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