What Is Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $25.24, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $36.65. With 11 out of 13 models flagging downside (-31.1% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: Markov DDM targets $92.14 (+151.5%), versus Dynamic NAV at $0.98 (-97.3%). This +248.8% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.
What Do the Models Say About CMG?
13 of 13 models are currently active for CMG. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 11 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates CMG's intrinsic value at $19.88, implying -45.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does CMG Rank in Retail-Eating Places?
Among 42 Retail-Eating Places stocks, CMG ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 10.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 10.0 places CMG in the top tier.
See all Most Undervalued Retail-Eating Places Stocks →
As a consumer-facing company, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. operates in a sector where store traffic trends is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating CMG should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.
Is CMG a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CMG a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
13 of 13 models are active for Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. is rated at 10.0/10. This elite-tier score ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +248.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every CMG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across CMG's 13 active models, average confidence is 43%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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