Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (RRGB) Fair Value 2026

RRGB · Retail-Eating Places ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

3.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (24/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (RRGB) trades at $7.03, approximately 14% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $8.17. QOC: 3.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 24/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
RRGB
Price
$7.03
Quality Score
3.6/10
Value Trap Risk
24/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: RCMH-DCF suggests +471.2% upside with 53% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 3.6/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (RRGB) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (RRGB) appears undervalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $14.60, 107.7% above the current price of $7.03. Estimates range from $5.99 to $40.15. RRGB scores 3.6/10 on fundamental quality and 24/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($7.03)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$8.17 +16.2%
CUCE Ensemble
Medium Conviction
$10.92 +55.3%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$14.65 +108.4%
RCMH-DCF
High Conviction
$40.15 +471.2%

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What Is Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (RRGB) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $15.53. At a current market price of $7.03, 8 of 9 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting an average implied return of +120.9%. Notably, RCMH-DCF sees the most upside at +471.2% (fair value: $40.15), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -14.8% ($5.99). The spread between these extremes — +485.9% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About RRGB?

9 of 13 models are currently active for RRGB. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates RRGB's intrinsic value at $8.17, implying +16.2% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does RRGB Rank in Retail-Eating Places?

Among 42 Retail-Eating Places stocks, RRGB ranks #40 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 3.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 3.6 signals below-average fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Retail-Eating Places Stocks →

As a retail business, Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. operates in a sector where gross margin expansion is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating RRGB should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is RRGB a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns RRGB a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 3.6/10. This mixed score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +485.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every RRGB valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across RRGB's 9 active models, average confidence is 38%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Retail-Eating Places Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Retail-Eating Places stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: CMG · TXRH · WING · NATH · MCD

See all Retail-Eating Places stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc.

What is Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (RRGB) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $8.17. The Quality of Company score is 3.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is RRGB overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $7.03, 8 of 9 active models suggest RRGB may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $14.60, 107.7% above the current price of $7.03 — a consensus view that RRGB is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc.'s business model in Retail-Eating Places.

What does a Quality of Company score of 3.6 mean for RRGB?

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc.'s QOC of 3.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on RRGB?

CirclFi analyzes RRGB with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is RRGB a value trap in 2026?

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 24/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (RRGB) has a median fair value of $14.60 — 107.7% above the current price of $7.03 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/RRGB/ · Methodology

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