Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (RRGB) Fair Value 2026

RRGB · Restaurants ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (13/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (RRGB) trades at $8.36, versus a $11.65 median fair value across its 5 active models — 39.3% above the current price. QOC: 5.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 13/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
RRGB
Price
$8.36
Quality Score
5.6/10
Value Trap Risk
13/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +69.7% upside with 3% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (5/13) may reduce confidence

Is Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (RRGB) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (RRGB) appears undervalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $11.65, 39.3% above the current price of $8.36. Estimates range from $8.62 to $16.23. RRGB scores 5.6/10 on fundamental quality and 13/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. RRGB’s +39.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Restaurants sector median is -11.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give RRGB?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($8.36)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $14.19 +69.7%
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $8.62 +3.1%
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What Is RRGB's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $8.62 to $16.23

CirclFi's 5 active models place Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (RRGB) between $8.62 and $16.23 per share, a spread of 65% of the median. The median of that range — $11.65 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for RRGB, against a current price of $8.36.

Low · Regime CrossHigh · PWERM
$8.62median $11.65$16.23
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$8.62
Most bullish modelPWERM$16.23
Model agreement4 bullish · 0 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on RRGB, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (RRGB) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $11.65. At a current market price of $8.36, 4 of 5 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting a median implied return of +39.3%. Notably, PWERM sees the most upside at +94.2% (fair value: $16.23), while Regime Cross is the most conservative at +3.1% ($8.62). The spread between these extremes — +91.1% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About RRGB?

5 of 13 models are currently active for RRGB. All 5 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for RRGB is $11.65 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does RRGB Rank in Restaurants?

Among 56 Restaurants stocks, RRGB ranks #42 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.6 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Restaurants Stocks →

As a retail business, Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. operates in a sector where gross margin expansion is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating RRGB should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is RRGB a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns RRGB a score of 13/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 5.6/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +91.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every RRGB valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across RRGB's 5 active models, average confidence is 29%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Restaurants Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Restaurants stocks with 13-model coverage

STKSThe ONE Group Hospitality, Inc.QOC 5.9THCHTH International LimitedQOC 5.5ARKRArk Restaurants Corp.QOC 5.9VSTDVestand Inc.QOC 5.4SGSweetgreen, Inc.QOC 5.9BRCBBlack Rock Coffee Bar, Inc.QOC 5.3CHSNChanson International HoldingQOC 1.9DPZDomino's Pizza, Inc.QOC 8.2DINDine Brands Global, Inc.QOC 7.1EATBrinker International, Inc.QOC 9.3CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.QOC 9.2

Read investment analysis: STKS · THCH · ARKR · VSTD · SG · BRCB · CHSN · DPZ · DIN · EAT · CMG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to RRGB?

7 companies across all industries closest to RRGB’s Quality of Company score of 5.6/10.

PUSAPowerus CorporationQOC 5.6CTEVClaritev CorporationQOC 5.6LFWDLifeward Ltd.QOC 5.6ASTCAstrotech CorporationQOC 5.6PACBPacific Biosciences of California, Inc.QOC 5.6CDIXCardiff Lexington CorporationQOC 5.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PUSA · CTEV · LFWD · ASTC · PACB · CDIX · NVDA

Where Does RRGB Sit in CirclFi's Restaurants Rankings?

RRGB is ranked against every other Restaurants stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Restaurants stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (RRGB)'s intrinsic value at $11.65 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $8.62 to $16.23. The Quality of Company score is 5.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is RRGB overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $8.36, 5 of 5 active models suggest RRGB may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $11.65, 39.3% above the current price of $8.36 — a consensus view that RRGB is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc.'s business model in Restaurants.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.6 mean for RRGB?

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc.'s QOC of 5.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on RRGB?

CirclFi analyzes RRGB with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on RRGB?

Of the 5 models currently active on RRGB, PWERM is the most bullish at $16.23 per share, and Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bearish at $8.62. CirclFi's published fair value for RRGB is the median of that range, $11.65, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 65% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is RRGB a value trap in 2026?

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 13/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (RRGB) has a median fair value of $11.65 — 39.3% above the current price of $8.36 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/RRGB/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this RRGB valuation
  • Financial statements: Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001171759) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for RRGB as of ; valuations recomputed .

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