The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc. (STKS) Fair Value 2026

STKS · Retail-Eating Places ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (42/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc. (STKS) trades at $1.95, approximately 69% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $6.20. QOC: 5.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 42/100 (WARN). 8/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
STKS
Price
$1.95
Quality Score
5.7/10
Value Trap Risk
42/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +480.8% upside with 54% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 42 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Valuation Matrix

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($1.95)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Medium Conviction
$6.20 +218.0%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$8.29 +325.1%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$11.33 +480.8%
Sentiment SOTP
Medium Conviction
$0.11 -94.4%

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What Is The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc. (STKS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $5.97. At a current market price of $1.95, 6 of 8 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting an average implied return of +206.4%. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at +480.8% (fair value: $11.33), while Sentiment SOTP is the most conservative at -94.4% ($0.11). The spread between these extremes — +575.2% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About STKS?

8 of 13 models are currently active for STKS. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates STKS's intrinsic value at $6.20, implying +218.0% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does STKS Rank in Retail-Eating Places?

Among 42 Retail-Eating Places stocks, STKS ranks #32 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.7 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Retail-Eating Places Stocks →

Within the Retail-Eating Places space, The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc. competes in an environment where store traffic trends often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is STKS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns STKS a score of 42/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc. is rated at 5.7/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +575.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every STKS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across STKS's 8 active models, average confidence is 33%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Retail-Eating Places Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Retail-Eating Places stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: CMG · TXRH · WING · NATH · MCD

See all Retail-Eating Places stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc.

What is The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc. (STKS) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $6.20. The Quality of Company score is 5.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is STKS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $1.95, 6 of 8 active models suggest STKS may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc.'s business model in Retail-Eating Places.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.7 mean for STKS?

The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc.'s QOC of 5.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on STKS?

CirclFi analyzes STKS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is STKS a value trap in 2026?

The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 42/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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