Bloomin' Brands, Inc. (BLMN) Fair Value 2026

BLMN · Retail-Eating Places ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Bloomin' Brands, Inc. (BLMN) trades at $8.44, approximately 71% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $29.07. QOC: 5.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
BLMN
Price
$8.44
Quality Score
5.8/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: Earnings Power Value suggests +369.8% upside with 78% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (9/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($8.44)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$29.07 +244.5%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$39.65 +369.8%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$37.86 +348.6%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$7.19 -14.8%

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What Is Bloomin' Brands, Inc. (BLMN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for Bloomin' Brands, Inc.. Trading at $8.44 against an estimated intrinsic value of $19.62, 7 of 9 active models flag meaningful upside of +132.5% on average. The most optimistic model, EPV, places fair value at $39.65 (+369.8%), while Sentiment SOTP — the most conservative — estimates $2.38 (-71.8%). This +441.7% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Bloomin' Brands, Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About BLMN?

9 of 13 models are currently active for BLMN. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates BLMN's intrinsic value at $29.07, implying +244.5% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BLMN Rank in Retail-Eating Places?

Among 42 Retail-Eating Places stocks, BLMN ranks #30 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.8 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Retail-Eating Places Stocks →

As a consumer sector, Bloomin' Brands, Inc. operates in a sector where inventory turnover is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating BLMN should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is BLMN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BLMN a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Bloomin' Brands, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Bloomin' Brands, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 5.8/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +441.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BLMN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BLMN's 9 active models, average confidence is 49%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Bloomin' Brands, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Retail-Eating Places Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Retail-Eating Places stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: CMG · TXRH · WING · NATH · MCD

See all Retail-Eating Places stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Bloomin' Brands, Inc.

What is Bloomin' Brands, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Bloomin' Brands, Inc. (BLMN) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $29.07. The Quality of Company score is 5.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BLMN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $8.44, 7 of 9 active models suggest BLMN may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Bloomin' Brands, Inc.'s business model in Retail-Eating Places.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.8 mean for BLMN?

Bloomin' Brands, Inc.'s QOC of 5.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BLMN?

CirclFi analyzes BLMN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is BLMN a value trap in 2026?

Bloomin' Brands, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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