Nathan's Famous, Inc. (NATH) Fair Value 2026

NATH · Restaurants ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Nathan's Famous, Inc. (NATH) trades at $97.74, versus a $96.45 median fair value across its 10 active models — 1.3% below the current price. QOC: 8.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $140.28.

Key Facts

Ticker
NATH
Price
$97.74
Quality Score
8.4/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +63.1% upside with 60% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (10/13) may reduce confidence

Is Nathan's Famous, Inc. (NATH) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Nathan's Famous, Inc. (NATH) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $96.45, within 1.3% of the current price of $97.74. Estimates range from $37.01 to $159.37. NATH scores 8.4/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. NATH’s -1.3% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Restaurants sector median is -18.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Nathan's Famous, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NATH?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($97.74)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $140.28 +43.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $97.68 -0.1%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $97.69 -0.0%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $159.37 +63.1%
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What Is NATH's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $37.01 to $159.37

CirclFi's 10 active models place Nathan's Famous, Inc. (NATH) between $37.01 and $159.37 per share, a spread of 127% of the median. The median of that range — $96.45 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NATH, against a current price of $97.74.

Low · EROICHigh · First Chicago
$37.01median $96.45$159.37
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$37.01
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$159.37
Model agreement2 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for NATH. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NATH, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Nathan's Famous, Inc. (NATH) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Nathan's Famous, Inc. presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $97.74. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $96.45 (-1.3% median upside), masking a wide model spread between the 2 bullish models and 4 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $159.37 (+63.1%), versus EROIC at $37.01 (-62.1%). This +125.2% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About NATH?

10 of 13 models are currently active for NATH. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for NATH is $96.45 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $140.28 on its own, implying +43.5% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NATH Rank in Restaurants?

Among 55 Restaurants stocks, NATH ranks #10 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.4 places NATH in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Restaurants Stocks →

As a consumer-facing company, Nathan's Famous, Inc. operates in a sector where customer lifetime value (CLV) is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating NATH should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is NATH a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NATH a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Nathan's Famous, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Nathan's Famous, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.4/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +125.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NATH valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NATH's 10 active models, average confidence is 52%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Nathan's Famous, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Restaurants Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Restaurants stocks with 13-model coverage

ARCOArcos Dorados Holdings Inc.QOC 8.5MCDMcDonald's CorporationQOC 8.3CAKEThe Cheesecake Factory IncorporatedQOC 8.5CHAChagee Holdings LimitedQOC 8.3RAVERave Restaurant Group, Inc.QOC 8.5BJRIBJ's Restaurants, Inc.QOC 8.3LOCOEl Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.6BHBiglari Holdings Inc.QOC 6.1HWHHWH International Inc.QOC 4.8EATBrinker International, Inc.QOC 9.3CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.QOC 9.2

Read investment analysis: ARCO · MCD · CAKE · CHA · RAVE · BJRI · LOCO · BH · HWH · EAT · CMG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NATH?

7 companies across all industries closest to NATH’s Quality of Company score of 8.4/10.

FIVNFive9, Inc.QOC 8.4GWREGuidewire Software, Inc.QOC 8.4MMYTMakeMyTrip LimitedQOC 8.4CCJCameco CorporationQOC 8.4RYRoyal Bank of CanadaQOC 8.4GRVYGravity Co., Ltd.QOC 8.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: FIVN · GWRE · MMYT · CCJ · RY · GRVY · NVDA

Where Does NATH Sit in CirclFi's Restaurants Rankings?

NATH is ranked against every other Restaurants stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Restaurants stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Nathan's Famous, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Nathan's Famous, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Nathan's Famous, Inc. (NATH)'s intrinsic value at $96.45 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $37.01 to $159.37. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $140.28 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NATH overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $97.74, 3 of 10 active models suggest NATH may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $96.45, within 1.3% of the current price of $97.74 — a consensus view that NATH is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Nathan's Famous, Inc.'s business model in Restaurants.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.4 mean for NATH?

Nathan's Famous, Inc.'s QOC of 8.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NATH?

CirclFi analyzes NATH with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NATH?

Of the 10 models currently active on NATH, First Chicago is the most bullish at $159.37 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $37.01. CirclFi's published fair value for NATH is the median of that range, $96.45, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 127% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NATH a value trap in 2026?

Nathan's Famous, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Nathan's Famous, Inc. (NATH) has a median fair value of $96.45 — within 1.3% of the current price of $97.74 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NATH/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NATH valuation
  • Financial statements: Nathan's Famous, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000069733) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NATH as of ; valuations recomputed .

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