Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (ARCO) Fair Value 2026

ARCO · Restaurants ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (10/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (ARCO) trades at $8.29, approximately 4272% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $0.19. QOC: 8.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 10/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ARCO
Price
$8.29
Quality Score
8.6/10
Value Trap Risk
10/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +57.6% upside with 49% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($8.29)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $0.19 -97.7%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $0.90 -89.2%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $8.78 +5.9%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
 $13.07 +57.6%

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What Is Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (ARCO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $8.30. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $8.92 (+7.5% average upside), masking a wide model spread between the 6 bullish models and 6 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: Markov DDM targets $30.61 (+269.0%), versus Bayesian DCF at $0.19 (-97.7%). This +366.7% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About ARCO?

12 of 13 models are currently active for ARCO. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates ARCO's intrinsic value at $0.19, implying -97.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ARCO Rank in Restaurants?

Among 2 Restaurants stocks, ARCO ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.6 places ARCO in the top tier.

Within the Restaurants space, Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. competes in an environment where store traffic trends often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is ARCO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ARCO a score of 10/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. is rated at 8.6/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +366.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ARCO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ARCO's 12 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Restaurants Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

1 related Restaurants stocks with 13-model coverage

ARKRArk Restaurants Corp.QOC 6.1

Read investment analysis: ARKR

Frequently Asked Questions About Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.

What is Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (ARCO) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $0.19. The Quality of Company score is 8.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ARCO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $8.29, 6 of 12 active models suggest ARCO may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.'s business model in Restaurants.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.6 mean for ARCO?

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.'s QOC of 8.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ARCO?

CirclFi analyzes ARCO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is ARCO a value trap in 2026?

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.'s Value Trap score is 10/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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