Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (ARCO) Fair Value 2026

ARCO · Restaurants ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (ARCO) trades at $8.00, versus a $17.55 median fair value across its 9 active models — 119.4% above the current price. QOC: 8.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ARCO
Price
$8.00
Quality Score
8.5/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +85.3% upside with 9% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (ARCO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (ARCO) appears undervalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $17.55, 119.4% above the current price of $8.00. Estimates range from $3.77 to $24.42. ARCO scores 8.5/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. ARCO’s +119.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Restaurants sector median is -20.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ARCO?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($8.00)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $5.91 -26.1%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $14.83 +85.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $6.75 -15.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $3.77 -52.9%
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What Is ARCO's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $3.77 to $24.42

CirclFi's 9 active models place Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (ARCO) between $3.77 and $24.42 per share, a spread of 118% of the median. The median of that range — $17.55 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ARCO, against a current price of $8.00.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Sentiment SOTP
$3.77median $17.55$24.42
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$3.77
Most bullish modelSentiment SOTP$24.42
Model agreement6 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ARCO. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ARCO, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (ARCO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $17.55, suggesting a +119.4% median upside from the current price of $8.00. While 6 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 3 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: Sentiment SOTP targets $24.42 (+205.2%), versus Markov DDM at $3.77 (-52.9%). This +258.1% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About ARCO?

9 of 13 models are currently active for ARCO. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ARCO is $17.55 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ARCO Rank in Restaurants?

Among 55 Restaurants stocks, ARCO ranks #9 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.5 places ARCO in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Restaurants Stocks →

Within the Restaurants space, Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. competes in an environment where store traffic trends often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is ARCO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ARCO a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. is rated at 8.5/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +258.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ARCO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ARCO's 9 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Restaurants Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Restaurants stocks with 13-model coverage

CAKEThe Cheesecake Factory IncorporatedQOC 8.5NATHNathan's Famous, Inc.QOC 8.4RAVERave Restaurant Group, Inc.QOC 8.5MCDMcDonald's CorporationQOC 8.3BROSDutch Bros Inc.QOC 8.7CHAChagee Holdings LimitedQOC 8.3QSRRestaurant Brands International Inc.QOC 7.6JACKJack in the Box Inc.QOC 6.7REBNReborn Coffee, Inc.QOC 5.0EATBrinker International, Inc.QOC 9.3CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.QOC 9.2

Read investment analysis: CAKE · NATH · RAVE · MCD · BROS · CHA · QSR · JACK · REBN · EAT · CMG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ARCO?

7 companies across all industries closest to ARCO’s Quality of Company score of 8.5/10.

HLNHaleon plcQOC 8.5SSRMSSR Mining Inc.QOC 8.5CORTCorcept Therapeutics IncorporatedQOC 8.5PLOWDouglas Dynamics, Inc.QOC 8.5BMYBristol-Myers Squibb CompanyQOC 8.5ENSGThe Ensign Group, Inc.QOC 8.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: HLN · SSRM · CORT · PLOW · BMY · ENSG · NVDA

Where Does ARCO Sit in CirclFi's Restaurants Rankings?

ARCO is ranked against every other Restaurants stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Restaurants stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (ARCO)'s intrinsic value at $17.55 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $3.77 to $24.42. The Quality of Company score is 8.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ARCO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $8.00, 6 of 9 active models suggest ARCO may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $17.55, 119.4% above the current price of $8.00 — a consensus view that ARCO is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.'s business model in Restaurants.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.5 mean for ARCO?

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.'s QOC of 8.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ARCO?

CirclFi analyzes ARCO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ARCO?

Of the 9 models currently active on ARCO, Sentiment SOTP is the most bullish at $24.42 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $3.77. CirclFi's published fair value for ARCO is the median of that range, $17.55, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 118% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ARCO a value trap in 2026?

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (ARCO) has a median fair value of $17.55 — 119.4% above the current price of $8.00 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ARCO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ARCO valuation
  • Financial statements: Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001508478) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ARCO as of ; valuations recomputed .

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