Biglari Holdings Inc. (BH) Fair Value 2026

BH · Restaurants ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (33/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Biglari Holdings Inc. (BH) trades at $369.87, versus a $213.07 median fair value across its 6 active models — 42.4% below the current price. QOC: 6.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 33/100 (LOW). 6/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $133.18.

Key Facts

Ticker
BH
Price
$369.87
Quality Score
6.2/10
Value Trap Risk
33/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: 6 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Biglari Holdings Inc. (BH) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Biglari Holdings Inc. (BH) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $213.07, 42.4% below the current price of $369.87. Estimates range from $27.89 to $439.30. BH scores 6.2/10 on fundamental quality and 33/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. BH’s -42.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Restaurants sector median is -11.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Biglari Holdings Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give BH?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($369.87)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $133.18 -64.0%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $187.15 -49.4%
Asset-Based · High Conviction
 $27.89 -92.5%
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What Is BH's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $27.89 to $439.30

CirclFi's 6 active models place Biglari Holdings Inc. (BH) between $27.89 and $439.30 per share, a spread of 193% of the median. The median of that range — $213.07 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for BH, against a current price of $369.87.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · FTNN
$27.89median $213.07$439.30
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$27.89
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$439.30
Model agreement1 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for BH. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on BH, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Biglari Holdings Inc. (BH) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Biglari Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $213.07. Trading at its current price of $369.87, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 5 of 6 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -42.4%. The most optimistic model, FTNN, places fair value at $439.30 (+18.8%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $27.89 (-92.5%). This +111.2% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Biglari Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About BH?

6 of 13 models are currently active for BH. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for BH is $213.07 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $133.18 on its own, implying -64.0% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BH Rank in Restaurants?

Among 56 Restaurants stocks, BH ranks #37 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.2 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Restaurants Stocks →

The Restaurants sector introduces analytical considerations specific to consumer businesses. For Biglari Holdings Inc., metrics like customer lifetime value (CLV) provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is BH a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BH a score of 33/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Biglari Holdings Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Biglari Holdings Inc. scores 6.2 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +111.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BH valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BH's 6 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Biglari Holdings Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Restaurants Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Restaurants stocks with 13-model coverage

JACKJack in the Box Inc.QOC 6.7KRUSKura Sushi USA, Inc.QOC 6.0BTBDBT Brands, Inc.QOC 6.7SGSweetgreen, Inc.QOC 5.9MBMasterBeef GroupQOC 6.8ARKRArk Restaurants Corp.QOC 5.9REBNReborn Coffee, Inc.QOC 4.9ARCOArcos Dorados Holdings Inc.QOC 8.5LOCOEl Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.6EATBrinker International, Inc.QOC 9.3CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.QOC 9.2

Read investment analysis: JACK · KRUS · BTBD · SG · MB · ARKR · REBN · ARCO · LOCO · EAT · CMG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to BH?

7 companies across all industries closest to BH’s Quality of Company score of 6.2/10.

NSTSNSTS Bancorp, Inc.QOC 6.2OMTKOmnitek Engineering Corp.QOC 6.2DXYNThe Dixie Group, Inc.QOC 6.2CLDXCelldex Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 6.2SUGPSU Group Holdings LimitedQOC 6.2WXMWF International LimitedQOC 6.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: NSTS · OMTK · DXYN · CLDX · SUGP · WXM · NVDA

Where Does BH Sit in CirclFi's Restaurants Rankings?

BH is ranked against every other Restaurants stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Restaurants stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Biglari Holdings Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Biglari Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Biglari Holdings Inc. (BH)'s intrinsic value at $213.07 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $27.89 to $439.30. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $133.18 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BH overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $369.87, 1 of 6 active models suggest BH may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $213.07, 42.4% below the current price of $369.87 — a consensus view that BH is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Biglari Holdings Inc.'s business model in Restaurants.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.2 mean for BH?

Biglari Holdings Inc.'s QOC of 6.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BH?

CirclFi analyzes BH with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on BH?

Of the 6 models currently active on BH, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $439.30 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $27.89. CirclFi's published fair value for BH is the median of that range, $213.07, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 193% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is BH a value trap in 2026?

Biglari Holdings Inc.'s Value Trap score is 33/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Biglari Holdings Inc. (BH) has a median fair value of $213.07 — 42.4% below the current price of $369.87 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BH/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this BH valuation
  • Financial statements: Biglari Holdings Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001726173) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for BH as of ; valuations recomputed .

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