El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. (LOCO) Fair Value 2026

LOCO · Restaurants ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. (LOCO) trades at $15.31, versus a $11.08 median fair value across its 10 active models — 27.6% below the current price. QOC: 7.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $10.75.

Key Facts

Ticker
LOCO
Price
$15.31
Quality Score
7.6/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: 10 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. (LOCO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. (LOCO) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $11.08, 27.6% below the current price of $15.31. Estimates range from $5.44 to $24.39. LOCO scores 7.6/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. LOCO’s -27.6% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Restaurants sector median is -20.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give LOCO?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($15.31)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $10.75 -29.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $5.44 -64.4%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $11.42 -25.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $7.17 -53.2%
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What Is LOCO's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $5.44 to $24.39

CirclFi's 10 active models place El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. (LOCO) between $5.44 and $24.39 per share, a spread of 171% of the median. The median of that range — $11.08 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for LOCO, against a current price of $15.31.

Low · EPVHigh · Regime Cross
$5.44median $11.08$24.39
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$5.44
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$24.39
Model agreement3 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for LOCO. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on LOCO, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. (LOCO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. at its current price of $15.31. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $11.08 (-27.6% vs price), with 6 models flagging overvaluation risk. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +59.3% (fair value: $24.39), while EPV is the most conservative at -64.4% ($5.44). The spread between these extremes — +123.8% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About LOCO?

10 of 13 models are currently active for LOCO. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for LOCO is $11.08 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $10.75 on its own, implying -29.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does LOCO Rank in Restaurants?

Among 55 Restaurants stocks, LOCO ranks #23 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.6 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Restaurants Stocks →

As a retail business, El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. operates in a sector where customer lifetime value (CLV) is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating LOCO should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is LOCO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns LOCO a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.6/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +123.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every LOCO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across LOCO's 10 active models, average confidence is 51%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Restaurants Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Restaurants stocks with 13-model coverage

QSRRestaurant Brands International Inc.QOC 7.6NROMNoble Roman's, Inc.QOC 7.4RICKRCI Hospitality Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.7SBUXStarbucks CorporationQOC 7.4SHAKShake Shack Inc.QOC 7.8GTIMGood Times Restaurants Inc.QOC 7.4JACKJack in the Box Inc.QOC 6.7REBNReborn Coffee, Inc.QOC 5.0ARCOArcos Dorados Holdings Inc.QOC 8.5EATBrinker International, Inc.QOC 9.3CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.QOC 9.2

Read investment analysis: QSR · NROM · RICK · SBUX · SHAK · GTIM · JACK · REBN · ARCO · EAT · CMG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to LOCO?

7 companies across all industries closest to LOCO’s Quality of Company score of 7.6/10.

ULUnilever PLCQOC 7.6ESABESAB CorporationQOC 7.6STTState Street CorporationQOC 7.6DLRDigital Realty Trust, Inc.QOC 7.6TRNTrinity Industries, Inc.QOC 7.6DITAMCON Distributing CompanyQOC 7.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: UL · ESAB · STT · DLR · TRN · DIT · NVDA

Where Does LOCO Sit in CirclFi's Restaurants Rankings?

LOCO is ranked against every other Restaurants stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Restaurants stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. (LOCO)'s intrinsic value at $11.08 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $5.44 to $24.39. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $10.75 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is LOCO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $15.31, 3 of 10 active models suggest LOCO may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $11.08, 27.6% below the current price of $15.31 — a consensus view that LOCO is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Restaurants.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.6 mean for LOCO?

El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 7.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on LOCO?

CirclFi analyzes LOCO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on LOCO?

Of the 10 models currently active on LOCO, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $24.39 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $5.44. CirclFi's published fair value for LOCO is the median of that range, $11.08, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 171% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is LOCO a value trap in 2026?

El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. (LOCO) has a median fair value of $11.08 — 27.6% below the current price of $15.31 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/LOCO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this LOCO valuation
  • Financial statements: El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001606366) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for LOCO as of ; valuations recomputed .

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