RCI Hospitality Holdings, Inc. (RICK) Fair Value 2026

RICK · Restaurants ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (13/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, RCI Hospitality Holdings, Inc. (RICK) trades at $29.53, versus a $45.08 median fair value across its 12 active models — 52.7% above the current price. QOC: 7.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 13/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $77.03.

Key Facts

Ticker
RICK
Price
$29.53
Quality Score
7.7/10
Value Trap Risk
13/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +383.4% upside with 57% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Is RCI Hospitality Holdings, Inc. (RICK) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, RCI Hospitality Holdings, Inc. (RICK) appears undervalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $45.08, 52.7% above the current price of $29.53. Estimates range from $11.89 to $142.75. RICK scores 7.7/10 on fundamental quality and 13/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. RICK’s +52.7% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Restaurants sector median is -18.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy RCI Hospitality Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give RICK?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($29.53)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $77.03 +160.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $17.42 -41.0%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $43.73 +48.1%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $142.75 +383.4%
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What Is RICK's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $11.89 to $142.75

CirclFi's 12 active models place RCI Hospitality Holdings, Inc. (RICK) between $11.89 and $142.75 per share, a spread of 290% of the median. The median of that range — $45.08 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for RICK, against a current price of $29.53.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · First Chicago
$11.89median $45.08$142.75
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$11.89
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$142.75
Model agreement7 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for RICK. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on RICK, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is RCI Hospitality Holdings, Inc. (RICK) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on RCI Hospitality Holdings, Inc. at $29.53. With an estimated intrinsic value of $45.08 and 7 of 12 models pointing higher, the median implied return is +52.7%. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $142.75 (+383.4%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $11.89 (-59.7%). This +443.1% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about RCI Hospitality Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About RICK?

12 of 13 models are currently active for RICK. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for RICK is $45.08 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $77.03 on its own, implying +160.9% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does RICK Rank in Restaurants?

Among 55 Restaurants stocks, RICK ranks #21 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.7 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Restaurants Stocks →

As a consumer sector, RCI Hospitality Holdings, Inc. operates in a sector where gross margin expansion is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating RICK should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is RICK a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns RICK a score of 13/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for RCI Hospitality Holdings, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, RCI Hospitality Holdings, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.7/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +443.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every RICK valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across RICK's 12 active models, average confidence is 49%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy RCI Hospitality Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Restaurants Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Restaurants stocks with 13-model coverage

SHAKShake Shack Inc.QOC 7.8QSRRestaurant Brands International Inc.QOC 7.6CBRLCracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc.QOC 7.9LOCOEl Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.6WENThe Wendy's CompanyQOC 8.1NROMNoble Roman's, Inc.QOC 7.4MBMasterBeef GroupQOC 6.8NDLSNoodles & CompanyQOC 5.1RAVERave Restaurant Group, Inc.QOC 8.5EATBrinker International, Inc.QOC 9.3CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.QOC 9.2

Read investment analysis: SHAK · QSR · CBRL · LOCO · WEN · NROM · MB · NDLS · RAVE · EAT · CMG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to RICK?

7 companies across all industries closest to RICK’s Quality of Company score of 7.7/10.

ECGEverus Construction Group, Inc.QOC 7.7CZWICitizens Community Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.7HCSGHealthcare Services Group, Inc.QOC 7.7HIIHuntington Ingalls Industries, Inc.QOC 7.7CTVACorteva, Inc.QOC 7.7WETHWetouch Technology Inc.QOC 7.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ECG · CZWI · HCSG · HII · CTVA · WETH · NVDA

Where Does RICK Sit in CirclFi's Restaurants Rankings?

RICK is ranked against every other Restaurants stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Restaurants stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About RCI Hospitality Holdings, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is RCI Hospitality Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts RCI Hospitality Holdings, Inc. (RICK)'s intrinsic value at $45.08 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $11.89 to $142.75. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $77.03 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is RICK overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $29.53, 7 of 12 active models suggest RICK may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $45.08, 52.7% above the current price of $29.53 — a consensus view that RICK is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits RCI Hospitality Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Restaurants.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.7 mean for RICK?

RCI Hospitality Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 7.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on RICK?

CirclFi analyzes RICK with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on RICK?

Of the 12 models currently active on RICK, First Chicago is the most bullish at $142.75 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $11.89. CirclFi's published fair value for RICK is the median of that range, $45.08, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 290% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is RICK a value trap in 2026?

RCI Hospitality Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 13/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, RCI Hospitality Holdings, Inc. (RICK) has a median fair value of $45.08 — 52.7% above the current price of $29.53 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/RICK/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this RICK valuation
  • Financial statements: RCI Hospitality Holdings, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000935419) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for RICK as of ; valuations recomputed .

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