Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) Fair Value 2026

SHAK · Restaurants ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) trades at $70.55, versus a $25.72 median fair value across its 10 active models — 63.5% below the current price. QOC: 7.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $21.34.

Key Facts

Ticker
SHAK
Price
$70.55
Quality Score
7.8/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: 10 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $25.72, 63.5% below the current price of $70.55. Estimates range from $1.34 to $57.80. SHAK scores 7.8/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. SHAK’s -63.5% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Restaurants sector median is -18.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Shake Shack Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give SHAK?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($70.55)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $21.34 -69.8%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $22.48 -68.1%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $57.80 -18.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $3.39 -95.2%
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What Is SHAK's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $1.34 to $57.80

CirclFi's 10 active models place Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) between $1.34 and $57.80 per share, a spread of 219% of the median. The median of that range — $25.72 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for SHAK, against a current price of $70.55.

Low · RCMH-DCFHigh · First Chicago
$1.34median $25.72$57.80
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRCMH-DCF$1.34
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$57.80
Model agreement0 bullish · 10 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for SHAK. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on SHAK, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Shake Shack Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $25.72, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $70.55. With 10 out of 10 models flagging downside (-63.5% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at -18.1% (fair value: $57.80), while RCMH-DCF is the most conservative at -98.1% ($1.34). The spread between these extremes — +80.0% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About SHAK?

10 of 13 models are currently active for SHAK. All 10 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for SHAK is $25.72 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $21.34 on its own, implying -69.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SHAK Rank in Restaurants?

Among 55 Restaurants stocks, SHAK ranks #20 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.8 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Restaurants Stocks →

As a retail business, Shake Shack Inc. operates in a sector where same-store sales growth (comps) is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating SHAK should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is SHAK a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SHAK a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Shake Shack Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Shake Shack Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.8/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +80.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SHAK valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SHAK's 10 active models, average confidence is 39%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Shake Shack Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Restaurants Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Restaurants stocks with 13-model coverage

CBRLCracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc.QOC 7.9RICKRCI Hospitality Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.7WENThe Wendy's CompanyQOC 8.1QSRRestaurant Brands International Inc.QOC 7.6DRIDarden Restaurants, Inc.QOC 8.1LOCOEl Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.6CAVACAVA Group, Inc.QOC 6.9CNNECannae Holdings, Inc.QOC 5.2BROSDutch Bros Inc.QOC 8.7EATBrinker International, Inc.QOC 9.3CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.QOC 9.2

Read investment analysis: CBRL · RICK · WEN · QSR · DRI · LOCO · CAVA · CNNE · BROS · EAT · CMG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to SHAK?

7 companies across all industries closest to SHAK’s Quality of Company score of 7.8/10.

LWLamb Weston Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.8EFXEquifax Inc.QOC 7.8MBCMasterBrand, Inc.QOC 7.8KLICKulicke and Soffa Industries, Inc.QOC 7.8CBFVCB Financial Services, Inc.QOC 7.8APIAgora, Inc.QOC 7.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: LW · EFX · MBC · KLIC · CBFV · API · NVDA

Where Does SHAK Sit in CirclFi's Restaurants Rankings?

SHAK is ranked against every other Restaurants stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Restaurants stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Shake Shack Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Shake Shack Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK)'s intrinsic value at $25.72 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $1.34 to $57.80. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $21.34 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SHAK overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $70.55, 0 of 10 active models suggest SHAK may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $25.72, 63.5% below the current price of $70.55 — a consensus view that SHAK is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Shake Shack Inc.'s business model in Restaurants.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.8 mean for SHAK?

Shake Shack Inc.'s QOC of 7.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SHAK?

CirclFi analyzes SHAK with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on SHAK?

Of the 10 models currently active on SHAK, First Chicago is the most bullish at $57.80 per share, and RCMH-DCF is the most bearish at $1.34. CirclFi's published fair value for SHAK is the median of that range, $25.72, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 219% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is SHAK a value trap in 2026?

Shake Shack Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) has a median fair value of $25.72 — 63.5% below the current price of $70.55 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SHAK/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this SHAK valuation
  • Financial statements: Shake Shack Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001620533) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for SHAK as of ; valuations recomputed .

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