SmartStop Self Storage REIT, Inc. (SMA) Fair Value 2026

SMA · REIT - Industrial ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (27/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, SmartStop Self Storage REIT, Inc. (SMA) trades at $33.13, versus a $18.74 median fair value across its 7 active models — 43.4% below the current price. QOC: 6.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 27/100 (LOW). 7/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
SMA
Price
$33.13
Quality Score
6.7/10
Value Trap Risk
27/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: 7 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is SmartStop Self Storage REIT, Inc. (SMA) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, SmartStop Self Storage REIT, Inc. (SMA) appears overvalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $18.74, 43.4% below the current price of $33.13. Estimates range from $4.88 to $26.37. SMA scores 6.7/10 on fundamental quality and 27/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. SMA’s -43.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the REIT - Industrial sector median is -37.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy SmartStop Self Storage REIT, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give SMA?

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($33.13)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $18.60 -43.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $19.22 -42.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $4.88 -85.3%
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What Is SMA's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 7 independent models · $4.88 to $26.37

CirclFi's 7 active models place SmartStop Self Storage REIT, Inc. (SMA) between $4.88 and $26.37 per share, a spread of 115% of the median. The median of that range — $18.74 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for SMA, against a current price of $33.13.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · PWERM
$4.88median $18.74$26.37
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$4.88
Most bullish modelPWERM$26.37
Model agreement0 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for SMA. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on SMA, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is SmartStop Self Storage REIT, Inc. (SMA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, SmartStop Self Storage REIT, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $18.74, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $33.13. With 7 out of 7 models flagging downside (-43.4% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, PWERM, places fair value at $26.37 (-20.4%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $4.88 (-85.3%). This +64.9% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about SmartStop Self Storage REIT, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About SMA?

7 of 13 models are currently active for SMA. All 7 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for SMA is $18.74 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SMA Rank in REIT - Industrial?

Among 15 REIT - Industrial stocks, SMA ranks #12 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.7 indicates above-average quality.

Within the REIT - Industrial space, SmartStop Self Storage REIT, Inc. competes in an environment where same-property NOI growth often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is SMA a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SMA a score of 27/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for SmartStop Self Storage REIT, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, SmartStop Self Storage REIT, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 6.7/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +64.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SMA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SMA's 7 active models, average confidence is 37%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy SmartStop Self Storage REIT, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar REIT - Industrial Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related REIT - Industrial stocks with 13-model coverage

LXPLXP Industrial TrustQOC 7.3COLDAmericold Realty Trust, Inc.QOC 6.2STAGSTAG Industrial, Inc.QOC 7.5LINELineage, Inc.QOC 5.4EXRExtra Space Storage Inc.QOC 7.8ILPTIndustrial Logistics Properties TrustQOC 4.4PLDPrologis, Inc.QOC 8.2FRFirst Industrial Realty Trust, Inc.QOC 7.8EGPEastGroup Properties, Inc.QOC 8.6CUBECubeSmartQOC 8.6

Read investment analysis: LXP · COLD · STAG · LINE · EXR · ILPT · PLD · FR · EGP · CUBE

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to SMA?

7 companies across all industries closest to SMA’s Quality of Company score of 6.7/10.

LTCHLatch, Inc.QOC 6.7GMGeneral Motors CompanyQOC 6.7TAITTaitron Components IncorporatedQOC 6.7AMNAMN Healthcare Services, Inc.QOC 6.7AEGAegon Ltd.QOC 6.7PAYDPAID, Inc.QOC 6.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: LTCH · GM · TAIT · AMN · AEG · PAYD · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About SmartStop Self Storage REIT, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is SmartStop Self Storage REIT, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts SmartStop Self Storage REIT, Inc. (SMA)'s intrinsic value at $18.74 — the median of 7 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $4.88 to $26.37. The Quality of Company score is 6.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SMA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $33.13, 0 of 7 active models suggest SMA may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $18.74, 43.4% below the current price of $33.13 — a consensus view that SMA is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits SmartStop Self Storage REIT, Inc.'s business model in REIT - Industrial.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.7 mean for SMA?

SmartStop Self Storage REIT, Inc.'s QOC of 6.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SMA?

CirclFi analyzes SMA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on SMA?

Of the 7 models currently active on SMA, PWERM is the most bullish at $26.37 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $4.88. CirclFi's published fair value for SMA is the median of that range, $18.74, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 115% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is SMA a value trap in 2026?

SmartStop Self Storage REIT, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 27/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, SmartStop Self Storage REIT, Inc. (SMA) has a median fair value of $18.74 — 43.4% below the current price of $33.13 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SMA/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this SMA valuation
  • Financial statements: SmartStop Self Storage REIT, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001585389) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for SMA as of ; valuations recomputed .

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