First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. (FR) Fair Value 2026

FR · REIT - Industrial ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (24/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. (FR) trades at $61.94, versus a $26.53 median fair value across its 8 active models — 57.2% below the current price. QOC: 7.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 24/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
FR
Price
$61.94
Quality Score
7.8/10
Value Trap Risk
24/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: 8 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. (FR) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. (FR) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $26.53, 57.2% below the current price of $61.94. Estimates range from $4.32 to $59.01. FR scores 7.8/10 on fundamental quality and 24/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. FR’s -57.2% gap is wider than that market norm, and the REIT - Industrial sector median is -41.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give FR?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($61.94)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $13.18 -78.7%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $24.95 -59.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $28.10 -54.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $23.22 -62.5%
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What Is FR's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $4.32 to $59.01

CirclFi's 8 active models place First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. (FR) between $4.32 and $59.01 per share, a spread of 206% of the median. The median of that range — $26.53 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for FR, against a current price of $61.94.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · FTNN
$4.32median $26.53$59.01
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$4.32
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$59.01
Model agreement0 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for FR. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on FR, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. (FR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $26.53. Trading at its current price of $61.94, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 7 of 8 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -57.2%. Model dispersion is worth noting: FTNN targets $59.01 (-4.7%), versus Dynamic NAV at $4.32 (-93.0%). This +88.3% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About FR?

8 of 13 models are currently active for FR. All 8 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for FR is $26.53 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does FR Rank in REIT - Industrial?

Among 15 REIT - Industrial stocks, FR ranks #8 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.8 indicates above-average quality.

First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc.'s positioning within the REIT - Industrial segment means that same-property NOI growth plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including demographic-driven demand — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is FR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns FR a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. earns a quality score of 7.8/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +88.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every FR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across FR's 8 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar REIT - Industrial Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related REIT - Industrial stocks with 13-model coverage

IIPRInnovative Industrial Properties, Inc.QOC 7.8EXRExtra Space Storage Inc.QOC 7.8REXRRexford Industrial Realty, Inc.QOC 8.0STAGSTAG Industrial, Inc.QOC 7.5PSAPublic StorageQOC 8.2LXPLXP Industrial TrustQOC 7.4ILPTIndustrial Logistics Properties TrustQOC 4.4PLDPrologis, Inc.QOC 8.2EGPEastGroup Properties, Inc.QOC 8.6CUBECubeSmartQOC 8.6

Read investment analysis: IIPR · EXR · REXR · STAG · PSA · LXP · ILPT · PLD · EGP · CUBE

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to FR?

7 companies across all industries closest to FR’s Quality of Company score of 7.8/10.

SNDRSchneider National, Inc.QOC 7.8RYANRyan Specialty Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.8HIPOHippo Holdings Inc.QOC 7.8AMKRAmkor Technology, Inc.QOC 7.8PCRXPacira BioSciences, Inc.QOC 7.8DOLEDole plcQOC 7.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SNDR · RYAN · HIPO · AMKR · PCRX · DOLE · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. (FR)'s intrinsic value at $26.53 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $4.32 to $59.01. The Quality of Company score is 7.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is FR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $61.94, 0 of 8 active models suggest FR may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $26.53, 57.2% below the current price of $61.94 — a consensus view that FR is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc.'s business model in REIT - Industrial.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.8 mean for FR?

First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc.'s QOC of 7.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on FR?

CirclFi analyzes FR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on FR?

Of the 8 models currently active on FR, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $59.01 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $4.32. CirclFi's published fair value for FR is the median of that range, $26.53, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 206% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is FR a value trap in 2026?

First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 24/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. (FR) has a median fair value of $26.53 — 57.2% below the current price of $61.94 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/FR/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this FR valuation

Market data for FR as of ; valuations recomputed .

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