Macy's Inc (M) Fair Value 2026

M · Retail-Department Stores ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Macy's Inc (M) trades at $22.79, approximately 72% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $80.53. QOC: 7.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
M
Price
$22.79
Quality Score
7.1/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +253.4% upside with 68% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (13/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($22.79)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$80.53 +253.4%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$27.26 +19.6%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$38.76 +70.1%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$25.93 +13.8%

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What Is Macy's Inc (M) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Macy's Inc's intrinsic value is estimated at $38.41, suggesting a +68.6% average upside from the current price of $22.79. While 9 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 2 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: RCMH-DCF targets $91.28 (+300.6%), versus Regime Cross at $8.32 (-63.5%). This +364.1% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About M?

13 of 13 models are currently active for M. Of these, 10 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates M's intrinsic value at $80.53, implying +253.4% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does M Rank in Retail-Department Stores?

Among 5 Retail-Department Stores stocks, M ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.1 indicates above-average quality.

As a consumer-facing company, Macy's Inc operates in a sector where gross margin expansion is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating M should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is M a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns M a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Macy's Inc. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Macy's Inc is rated at 7.1/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +364.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every M valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across M's 13 active models, average confidence is 49%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Macy's Inc Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Retail-Department Stores Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

4 related Retail-Department Stores stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: DDS · DDT · BURL · KSS

Frequently Asked Questions About Macy's Inc

What is Macy's Inc's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Macy's Inc (M) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $80.53. The Quality of Company score is 7.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is M overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $22.79, 10 of 13 active models suggest M may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Macy's Inc's business model in Retail-Department Stores.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.1 mean for M?

Macy's Inc's QOC of 7.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on M?

CirclFi analyzes M with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is M a value trap in 2026?

Macy's Inc's Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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