Centene Corporation (CNC) Fair Value 2026

CNC · Hospital & Medical Service Plans ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (17/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Centene Corporation (CNC) trades at $68.30, approximately 56% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $156.34. QOC: 8.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 17/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
CNC
Price
$68.30
Quality Score
8.0/10
Value Trap Risk
17/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +128.9% upside with 62% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($68.30)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$156.34 +128.9%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$145.13 +112.5%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$107.58 +57.5%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$17.00 -75.1%

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What Is Centene Corporation (CNC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Centene Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $119.74, suggesting a +75.3% average upside from the current price of $68.30. While 8 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 4 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: Sentiment SOTP targets $310.46 (+354.5%), versus ML-RIV at $7.36 (-89.2%). This +443.8% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About CNC?

12 of 13 models are currently active for CNC. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates CNC's intrinsic value at $156.34, implying +128.9% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CNC Rank in Hospital & Medical Service Plans?

Among 9 Hospital & Medical Service Plans stocks, CNC ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.0 indicates above-average quality.

Centene Corporation operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is CNC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CNC a score of 17/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Centene Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Centene Corporation earns a quality score of 8.0/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +443.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CNC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CNC's 12 active models, average confidence is 37%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Centene Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Hospital & Medical Service Plans Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Hospital & Medical Service Plans stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: ELV · MOH · HUM · CI · TRUP

Frequently Asked Questions About Centene Corporation

What is Centene Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Centene Corporation (CNC) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $156.34. The Quality of Company score is 8.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CNC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $68.30, 8 of 12 active models suggest CNC may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Centene Corporation's business model in Hospital & Medical Service Plans.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.0 mean for CNC?

Centene Corporation's QOC of 8.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CNC?

CirclFi analyzes CNC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is CNC a value trap in 2026?

Centene Corporation's Value Trap score is 17/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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