Humana Inc. (HUM) Fair Value 2026

HUM · Healthcare Plans ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (13/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Humana Inc. (HUM) trades at $392.63, versus a $219.37 median fair value across its 6 active models — 44.1% below the current price. QOC: 7.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 13/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
HUM
Price
$392.63
Quality Score
7.6/10
Value Trap Risk
13/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: 6 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Humana Inc. (HUM) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Humana Inc. (HUM) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $219.37, 44.1% below the current price of $392.63. Estimates range from $88.33 to $476.62. HUM scores 7.6/10 on fundamental quality and 13/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. HUM’s -44.1% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Humana Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give HUM?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($392.63)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $227.31 -42.1%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $211.43 -46.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $88.33 -77.5%
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What Is HUM's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $88.33 to $476.62

CirclFi's 6 active models place Humana Inc. (HUM) between $88.33 and $476.62 per share, a spread of 177% of the median. The median of that range — $219.37 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for HUM, against a current price of $392.63.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Regime Cross
$88.33median $219.37$476.62
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$88.33
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$476.62
Model agreement1 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for HUM. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on HUM, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Humana Inc. (HUM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Humana Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $219.37. Trading at its current price of $392.63, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 5 of 6 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -44.1%. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $476.62 (+21.4%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $88.33 (-77.5%). This +98.9% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Humana Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About HUM?

6 of 13 models are currently active for HUM. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for HUM is $219.37 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HUM Rank in Healthcare Plans?

Among 12 Healthcare Plans stocks, HUM ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.6 indicates above-average quality.

The Healthcare Plans sector introduces analytical considerations specific to pharmaceutical industry businesses. For Humana Inc., metrics like revenue per drug provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is HUM a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HUM a score of 13/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Humana Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Humana Inc. earns a quality score of 7.6/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +98.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HUM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HUM's 6 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Humana Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Healthcare Plans Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Healthcare Plans stocks with 13-model coverage

PGNYProgyny, Inc.QOC 8.6PFHOPacific Health Care Organization, Inc.QOC 8.5ELVElevance Health, Inc.QOC 8.4UNHUnitedHealth Group IncorporatedQOC 8.0CIThe Cigna GroupQOC 7.9MOHMolina Healthcare, Inc.QOC 7.7CNCCentene CorporationQOC 7.4ALHCAlignment Healthcare, Inc.QOC 7.2OSCROscar Health, Inc.QOC 7.1CLOVClover Health Investments, Corp.QOC 6.5MRAIMarpai, Inc.QOC 4.2

Read investment analysis: PGNY · PFHO · ELV · UNH · CI · MOH · CNC · ALHC · OSCR · CLOV · MRAI

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to HUM?

7 companies across all industries closest to HUM’s Quality of Company score of 7.6/10.

LXULSB Industries, Inc.QOC 7.6CCCCCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings Inc.QOC 7.6MTSIMACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.6GYREGyre Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 7.6VTSIVirTra, Inc.QOC 7.6MHKMohawk Industries, Inc.QOC 7.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: LXU · CCC · MTSI · GYRE · VTSI · MHK · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Humana Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Humana Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Humana Inc. (HUM)'s intrinsic value at $219.37 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $88.33 to $476.62. The Quality of Company score is 7.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HUM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $392.63, 1 of 6 active models suggest HUM may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $219.37, 44.1% below the current price of $392.63 — a consensus view that HUM is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Humana Inc.'s business model in Healthcare Plans.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.6 mean for HUM?

Humana Inc.'s QOC of 7.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HUM?

CirclFi analyzes HUM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on HUM?

Of the 6 models currently active on HUM, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $476.62 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $88.33. CirclFi's published fair value for HUM is the median of that range, $219.37, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 177% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is HUM a value trap in 2026?

Humana Inc.'s Value Trap score is 13/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Humana Inc. (HUM) has a median fair value of $219.37 — 44.1% below the current price of $392.63 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/HUM/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this HUM valuation
  • Financial statements: Humana Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000049071) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for HUM as of ; valuations recomputed .

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