LSB Industries, Inc. (LXU) Fair Value 2026

LXU · Chemicals ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (30/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, LSB Industries, Inc. (LXU) trades at $10.44, versus a $9.59 median fair value across its 12 active models — 8.1% below the current price. QOC: 7.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 30/100 (LOW). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
LXU
Price
$10.44
Quality Score
7.6/10
Value Trap Risk
30/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +185.6% upside with 56% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is LSB Industries, Inc. (LXU) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, LSB Industries, Inc. (LXU) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $9.59, within 8.1% of the current price of $10.44. Estimates range from $3.28 to $29.81. LXU scores 7.6/10 on fundamental quality and 30/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. LXU’s -8.1% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Chemicals sector median is -0.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy LSB Industries, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give LXU?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($10.44)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $3.28 -68.6%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $9.05 -13.3%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $29.81 +185.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $5.91 -43.4%
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What Is LXU's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $3.28 to $29.81

CirclFi's 12 active models place LSB Industries, Inc. (LXU) between $3.28 and $29.81 per share, a spread of 277% of the median. The median of that range — $9.59 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for LXU, against a current price of $10.44.

Low · EPVHigh · First Chicago
$3.28median $9.59$29.81
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$3.28
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$29.81
Model agreement4 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for LXU. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on LXU, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is LSB Industries, Inc. (LXU) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, LSB Industries, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median $9.59, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $10.44. While the median implied return is -8.1%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +254.2% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $29.81 (+185.6%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $3.28 (-68.6%). This +254.2% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about LSB Industries, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About LXU?

12 of 13 models are currently active for LXU. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for LXU is $9.59 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does LXU Rank in Chemicals?

Among 17 Chemicals stocks, LXU ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.6 indicates above-average quality.

As a industrial sector, LSB Industries, Inc. operates in a sector where order backlog depth is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating LXU should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is LXU a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns LXU a score of 30/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for LSB Industries, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, LSB Industries, Inc. is rated at 7.6/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +254.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every LXU valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across LXU's 12 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy LSB Industries, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Chemicals Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Chemicals stocks with 13-model coverage

MEOHMethanex CorporationQOC 8.1ASIXAdvanSix Inc.QOC 7.6WLKPWestlake Chemical Partners LPQOC 8.3CECelanese CorporationQOC 7.2REXREX American Resources CorporationQOC 8.3VHIValhi, Inc.QOC 6.9OLNOlin CorporationQOC 6.8ACNTAscent Industries Co.QOC 6.6BAKBraskem S.A.QOC 5.8

Read investment analysis: MEOH · ASIX · WLKP · CE · REX · VHI · OLN · ACNT · BAK

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to LXU?

7 companies across all industries closest to LXU’s Quality of Company score of 7.6/10.

MTSIMACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.6HUMHumana Inc.QOC 7.6VTSIVirTra, Inc.QOC 7.6CCCCCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings Inc.QOC 7.6QSRRestaurant Brands International Inc.QOC 7.6GYREGyre Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 7.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: MTSI · HUM · VTSI · CCC · QSR · GYRE · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About LSB Industries, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is LSB Industries, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts LSB Industries, Inc. (LXU)'s intrinsic value at $9.59 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $3.28 to $29.81. The Quality of Company score is 7.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is LXU overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $10.44, 5 of 12 active models suggest LXU may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $9.59, within 8.1% of the current price of $10.44 — a consensus view that LXU is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits LSB Industries, Inc.'s business model in Chemicals.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.6 mean for LXU?

LSB Industries, Inc.'s QOC of 7.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on LXU?

CirclFi analyzes LXU with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on LXU?

Of the 12 models currently active on LXU, First Chicago is the most bullish at $29.81 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $3.28. CirclFi's published fair value for LXU is the median of that range, $9.59, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 277% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is LXU a value trap in 2026?

LSB Industries, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 30/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, LSB Industries, Inc. (LXU) has a median fair value of $9.59 — within 8.1% of the current price of $10.44 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/LXU/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this LXU valuation
  • Financial statements: LSB Industries, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000060714) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for LXU as of ; valuations recomputed .

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