Methanex Corporation (MEOH) Fair Value 2026

MEOH · Chemicals ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Methanex Corporation (MEOH) trades at $58.33, versus a $66.14 median fair value across its 12 active models — 13.4% above the current price. QOC: 8.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $248.61.

Key Facts

Ticker
MEOH
Price
$58.33
Quality Score
8.1/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +326.2% upside with 53% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Is Methanex Corporation (MEOH) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Methanex Corporation (MEOH) appears undervalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $66.14, 13.4% above the current price of $58.33. Estimates range from $9.52 to $248.61. MEOH scores 8.1/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. MEOH’s +13.4% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Chemicals sector median is -0.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Methanex Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MEOH?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($58.33)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $248.61 +326.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $26.69 -54.2%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $76.05 +30.4%
Scenario · Medium Conviction
 $204.10 +249.9%
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What Is MEOH's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $9.52 to $248.61

CirclFi's 12 active models place Methanex Corporation (MEOH) between $9.52 and $248.61 per share, a spread of 361% of the median. The median of that range — $66.14 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MEOH, against a current price of $58.33.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Bayesian DCF
$9.52median $66.14$248.61
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$9.52
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$248.61
Model agreement6 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MEOH. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MEOH, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Methanex Corporation (MEOH) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Methanex Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at a median $66.14, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $58.33. While the median implied return is +13.4%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +409.9% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, Bayesian DCF, places fair value at $248.61 (+326.2%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $9.52 (-83.7%). This +409.9% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Methanex Corporation's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About MEOH?

12 of 13 models are currently active for MEOH. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MEOH is $66.14 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $248.61 on its own, implying +326.2% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MEOH Rank in Chemicals?

Among 17 Chemicals stocks, MEOH ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.1 places MEOH in the top tier.

Within the Chemicals space, Methanex Corporation competes in an environment where margin expansion trajectory often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is MEOH a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MEOH a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Methanex Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Methanex Corporation is rated at 8.1/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +409.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MEOH valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MEOH's 12 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Methanex Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Chemicals Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Chemicals stocks with 13-model coverage

WLKPWestlake Chemical Partners LPQOC 8.3LXULSB Industries, Inc.QOC 7.6REXREX American Resources CorporationQOC 8.3ASIXAdvanSix Inc.QOC 7.6GUREGulf Resources, Inc.QOC 5.0CECelanese CorporationQOC 7.2VHIValhi, Inc.QOC 6.9GPREGreen Plains Inc.QOC 6.7ASPIASP Isotopes Inc.QOC 6.0

Read investment analysis: WLKP · LXU · REX · ASIX · GURE · CE · VHI · GPRE · ASPI

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MEOH?

7 companies across all industries closest to MEOH’s Quality of Company score of 8.1/10.

ARMKAramarkQOC 8.1TAT&T Inc.QOC 8.1DAVEDave Inc.QOC 8.1WENThe Wendy's CompanyQOC 8.1BNYThe Bank of New York Mellon CorporationQOC 8.1NTNXNutanix, Inc.QOC 8.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ARMK · T · DAVE · WEN · BNY · NTNX · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Methanex Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Methanex Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Methanex Corporation (MEOH)'s intrinsic value at $66.14 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $9.52 to $248.61. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $248.61 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MEOH overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $58.33, 6 of 12 active models suggest MEOH may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $66.14, 13.4% above the current price of $58.33 — a consensus view that MEOH is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Methanex Corporation's business model in Chemicals.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.1 mean for MEOH?

Methanex Corporation's QOC of 8.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MEOH?

CirclFi analyzes MEOH with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MEOH?

Of the 12 models currently active on MEOH, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $248.61 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $9.52. CirclFi's published fair value for MEOH is the median of that range, $66.14, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 361% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MEOH a value trap in 2026?

Methanex Corporation's Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Methanex Corporation (MEOH) has a median fair value of $66.14 — 13.4% above the current price of $58.33 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MEOH/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MEOH valuation
  • Financial statements: Methanex Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000886977) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MEOH as of ; valuations recomputed .

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