AdvanSix Inc. (ASIX) Fair Value 2026

ASIX · Chemicals ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (13/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, AdvanSix Inc. (ASIX) trades at $16.49, versus a $21.04 median fair value across its 11 active models — 27.6% above the current price. QOC: 7.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 13/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ASIX
Price
$16.49
Quality Score
7.6/10
Value Trap Risk
13/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +336.6% upside with 59% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Is AdvanSix Inc. (ASIX) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, AdvanSix Inc. (ASIX) appears undervalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $21.04, 27.6% above the current price of $16.49. Estimates range from $6.30 to $72.00. ASIX scores 7.6/10 on fundamental quality and 13/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. ASIX’s +27.6% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Chemicals sector median is -4.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy AdvanSix Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ASIX?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($16.49)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $12.87 -22.0%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $21.04 +27.6%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $72.00 +336.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $14.04 -14.9%
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What Is ASIX's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $6.30 to $72.00

CirclFi's 11 active models place AdvanSix Inc. (ASIX) between $6.30 and $72.00 per share, a spread of 312% of the median. The median of that range — $21.04 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ASIX, against a current price of $16.49.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · First Chicago
$6.30median $21.04$72.00
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$6.30
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$72.00
Model agreement6 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ASIX. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ASIX, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is AdvanSix Inc. (ASIX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, AdvanSix Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median $21.04, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $16.49. While the median implied return is +27.6%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +398.4% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $72.00 (+336.6%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $6.30 (-61.8%). This +398.4% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about AdvanSix Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About ASIX?

11 of 13 models are currently active for ASIX. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ASIX is $21.04 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ASIX Rank in Chemicals?

Among 17 Chemicals stocks, ASIX ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.6 indicates above-average quality.

Within the Chemicals space, AdvanSix Inc. competes in an environment where book-to-bill ratio often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is ASIX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ASIX a score of 13/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for AdvanSix Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, AdvanSix Inc. is rated at 7.6/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +398.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ASIX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ASIX's 11 active models, average confidence is 48%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy AdvanSix Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Chemicals Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Chemicals stocks with 13-model coverage

LXULSB Industries, Inc.QOC 7.6CECelanese CorporationQOC 7.2MEOHMethanex CorporationQOC 8.1VHIValhi, Inc.QOC 6.9WLKPWestlake Chemical Partners LPQOC 8.3OLNOlin CorporationQOC 6.8DOWDow Inc.QOC 6.8RYAMRayonier Advanced Materials Inc.QOC 6.6GUREGulf Resources, Inc.QOC 5.1REXREX American Resources CorporationQOC 8.3

Read investment analysis: LXU · CE · MEOH · VHI · WLKP · OLN · DOW · RYAM · GURE · REX

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ASIX?

7 companies across all industries closest to ASIX’s Quality of Company score of 7.6/10.

GLPGlobal Partners LPQOC 7.6JAZZJazz Pharmaceuticals plcQOC 7.6VTOLBristow Group Inc.QOC 7.6GILTGilat Satellite Networks Ltd.QOC 7.6SITCSITE Centers Corp.QOC 7.6LRELead Real Estate Co., LtdQOC 7.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: GLP · JAZZ · VTOL · GILT · SITC · LRE · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About AdvanSix Inc.’s Valuation?

What is AdvanSix Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts AdvanSix Inc. (ASIX)'s intrinsic value at $21.04 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $6.30 to $72.00. The Quality of Company score is 7.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ASIX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $16.49, 6 of 11 active models suggest ASIX may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $21.04, 27.6% above the current price of $16.49 — a consensus view that ASIX is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits AdvanSix Inc.'s business model in Chemicals.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.6 mean for ASIX?

AdvanSix Inc.'s QOC of 7.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ASIX?

CirclFi analyzes ASIX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ASIX?

Of the 11 models currently active on ASIX, First Chicago is the most bullish at $72.00 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $6.30. CirclFi's published fair value for ASIX is the median of that range, $21.04, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 312% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ASIX a value trap in 2026?

AdvanSix Inc.'s Value Trap score is 13/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, AdvanSix Inc. (ASIX) has a median fair value of $21.04 — 27.6% above the current price of $16.49 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ASIX/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ASIX valuation
  • Financial statements: AdvanSix Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001673985) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ASIX as of ; valuations recomputed .

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