Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP) Fair Value 2026

NP · Insurance Brokers ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 3 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (20/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP) trades at $33.87, versus a $8.12 median fair value across its 3 active models — 76.0% below the current price. QOC: 7.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 20/100 (SAFE). 3/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
NP
Price
$33.87
Quality Score
7.6/10
Value Trap Risk
20/100
Models Active
3/13
Last Updated
Strength: 3 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP) appears overvalued as of : the median of 3 independent fair value estimates is $8.12, 76.0% below the current price of $33.87. Estimates range from $7.84 to $19.72. NP scores 7.6/10 on fundamental quality and 20/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. NP’s -76.0% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Insurance Brokers sector median is -17.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NP?

3 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($33.87)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $7.84 -76.9%
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $19.72 -41.8%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $8.12 -76.0%

All Models Active

All 3 models are displayed above.

What Is NP's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 3 independent models · $7.84 to $19.72

CirclFi's 3 active models place Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP) between $7.84 and $19.72 per share, a spread of 146% of the median. The median of that range — $8.12 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NP, against a current price of $33.87.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Regime Cross
$7.84median $8.12$19.72
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$7.84
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$19.72
Model agreement0 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for NP. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NP, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $8.12. Trading at its current price of $33.87, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 3 of 3 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -76.0%. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $19.72 (-41.8%), versus Markov DDM at $7.84 (-76.9%). This +35.1% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About NP?

3 of 13 models are currently active for NP. All 3 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for NP is $8.12 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NP Rank in Insurance Brokers?

Among 21 Insurance Brokers stocks, NP ranks #11 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.6 indicates above-average quality.

The Insurance Brokers sector introduces analytical considerations specific to risk-bearing enterprise businesses. For Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc., metrics like policy retention rate provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is NP a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NP a score of 20/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

3 of 13 models are active for Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. scores 7.6 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +35.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NP valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NP's 3 active models, average confidence is 37%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Insurance Brokers Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Insurance Brokers stocks with 13-model coverage

TWFGTWFG, Inc.QOC 7.6SLQTSelectQuote, Inc.QOC 7.5QDMIQDM International Inc.QOC 7.6LIFEEthos Technologies Inc.QOC 7.5AJGArthur J. Gallagher & Co.QOC 7.9HUIZHuize Holding LimitedQOC 7.4ARXAccelerant HoldingsQOC 6.1EZRAReliance Global Group, Inc.QOC 3.9WTWWillis Towers Watson Public Limited CompanyQOC 8.5CRVLCorVel CorporationQOC 9.1ERIEErie Indemnity CompanyQOC 8.9

Read investment analysis: TWFG · SLQT · QDMI · LIFE · AJG · HUIZ · ARX · EZRA · WTW · CRVL · ERIE

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NP?

7 companies across all industries closest to NP’s Quality of Company score of 7.6/10.

SUISun Communities, Inc.QOC 7.6JCAPJefferson Capital, Inc.QOC 7.6WRBYWarby Parker Inc.QOC 7.6ODDOddity Tech Ltd.QOC 7.6DKDelek US Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.6REYNReynolds Consumer Products Inc.QOC 7.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SUI · JCAP · WRBY · ODD · DK · REYN · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP)'s intrinsic value at $8.12 — the median of 3 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $7.84 to $19.72. The Quality of Company score is 7.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NP overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $33.87, 0 of 3 active models suggest NP may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 3 fair value estimates is $8.12, 76.0% below the current price of $33.87 — a consensus view that NP is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc.'s business model in Insurance Brokers.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.6 mean for NP?

Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc.'s QOC of 7.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NP?

CirclFi analyzes NP with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 3 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NP?

Of the 3 models currently active on NP, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $19.72 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $7.84. CirclFi's published fair value for NP is the median of that range, $8.12, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 146% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NP a value trap in 2026?

Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc.'s Value Trap score is 20/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP) has a median fair value of $8.12 — 76.0% below the current price of $33.87 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NP/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NP valuation
  • Financial statements: Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0002067129) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NP as of ; valuations recomputed .