Accelerant Holdings (ARX) Fair Value 2026

ARX · Insurance Brokers ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 2 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (20/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Accelerant Holdings (ARX) trades at $19.73, versus a $18.71 median fair value across its 2 active models — 5.2% below the current price. QOC: 6.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 20/100 (SAFE). 2/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ARX
Price
$19.73
Quality Score
6.1/10
Value Trap Risk
20/100
Models Active
2/13
Last Updated
Strength: FTNN Topology suggests +4.0% upside with 10% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (2/13) may reduce confidence

Is Accelerant Holdings (ARX) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Accelerant Holdings (ARX) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 2 independent fair value estimates is $18.71, within 5.2% of the current price of $19.73. Estimates range from $16.91 to $20.52. ARX scores 6.1/10 on fundamental quality and 20/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. ARX’s -5.2% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Insurance Brokers sector median is -17.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Accelerant Holdings Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ARX?

2 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($19.73)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Relative · Medium Conviction
$16.91 -14.3%
Relative · Low Conviction
$20.52 +4.0%

All Models Active

All 2 models are displayed above.

What Is Accelerant Holdings (ARX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Accelerant Holdings's intrinsic value is estimated at $18.71, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $19.73. With a median implied return of -5.2% across a split 0–1 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +18.3% underscores analytical uncertainty.

What Do the Models Say About ARX?

2 of 13 models are currently active for ARX. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ARX is $18.71 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ARX Rank in Insurance Brokers?

Among 21 Insurance Brokers stocks, ARX ranks #16 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.1 indicates above-average quality.

Within the Insurance Brokers space, Accelerant Holdings competes in an environment where expense ratio often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is ARX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ARX a score of 20/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

2 of 13 models are active for Accelerant Holdings. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Accelerant Holdings's fundamental quality profile registers 6.1/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

Models cluster within a tight range (+18.3% spread), increasing conviction. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ARX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ARX's 2 active models, average confidence is 24%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Accelerant Holdings Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Insurance Brokers Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Insurance Brokers stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: EHTH · BWIN · HUIZ · ZBAO · LIFE · AIFU · EZRA · WTW · TWFG · CRVL · ERIE

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ARX?

7 companies across all industries closest to ARX’s Quality of Company score of 6.1/10.

Read investment analysis: NIHK · SNDL · COTY · XPOF · BW · GNSS · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Accelerant Holdings’s Valuation?

What is Accelerant Holdings's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Accelerant Holdings (ARX)'s intrinsic value at $18.71 — the median of 2 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $16.91 to $20.52. The Quality of Company score is 6.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ARX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $19.73, 1 of 2 active models suggest ARX may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 2 fair value estimates is $18.71, within 5.2% of the current price of $19.73 — a consensus view that ARX is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Accelerant Holdings's business model in Insurance Brokers.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.1 mean for ARX?

Accelerant Holdings's QOC of 6.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ARX?

CirclFi analyzes ARX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 2 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is ARX a value trap in 2026?

Accelerant Holdings's Value Trap score is 20/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Accelerant Holdings (ARX) has a median fair value of $18.71 — within 5.2% of the current price of $19.73 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ARX/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ARX valuation
  • Financial statements: Accelerant Holdings 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001997350) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ARX as of ; valuations recomputed .