What Is Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $167.55. Trading at its current price of $261.16, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 10 of 12 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -35.8%. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $280.81 (+7.5%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $53.64 (-79.5%). This +87.0% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.'s intrinsic worth.
What Do the Models Say About AJG?
12 of 13 models are currently active for AJG. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates AJG's intrinsic value at $227.13, implying -13.0% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does AJG Rank in Insurance Brokers?
Among 4 Insurance Brokers stocks, AJG ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.1 places AJG in the top tier.
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.'s positioning within the Insurance Brokers segment means that combined ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including underwriting discipline — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.
Is AJG a Value Trap?
The Value Trap algorithm is not active for AJG. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
12 of 13 models are active for Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. scores 9.1 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a elite rating that ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +87.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every AJG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across AJG's 12 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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