Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) Fair Value 2026

AJG · Insurance Brokers ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) trades at $260.15, versus a $73.48 median fair value across its 6 active models — 71.8% below the current price. QOC: 7.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AJG
Price
$260.15
Quality Score
7.9/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: 6 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $73.48, 71.8% below the current price of $260.15. Estimates range from $60.24 to $422.68. AJG scores 7.9/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. AJG’s -71.8% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Insurance Brokers sector median is -18.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give AJG?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($260.15)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $60.24 -76.8%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $80.76 -69.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $63.69 -75.5%
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What Is AJG's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $60.24 to $422.68

CirclFi's 6 active models place Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) between $60.24 and $422.68 per share, a spread of 493% of the median. The median of that range — $73.48 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for AJG, against a current price of $260.15.

Low · EPVHigh · Regime Cross
$60.24median $73.48$422.68
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$60.24
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$422.68
Model agreement1 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for AJG. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on AJG, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $73.48. Trading at its current price of $260.15, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 5 of 6 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -71.8%. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $422.68 (+62.5%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $60.24 (-76.8%). This +139.3% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About AJG?

6 of 13 models are currently active for AJG. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for AJG is $73.48 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AJG Rank in Insurance Brokers?

Among 21 Insurance Brokers stocks, AJG ranks #8 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.9 indicates above-average quality.

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.'s positioning within the Insurance Brokers segment means that combined ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including underwriting discipline — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is AJG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AJG a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. scores 7.9 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +139.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AJG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AJG's 6 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Insurance Brokers Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Insurance Brokers stocks with 13-model coverage

AONAon plcQOC 8.2QDMIQDM International Inc.QOC 7.6BROBrown & Brown, Inc.QOC 8.3TWFGTWFG, Inc.QOC 7.6WTWWillis Towers Watson Public Limited CompanyQOC 8.5NPNeptune Insurance Holdings Inc.QOC 7.6LIFEEthos Technologies Inc.QOC 7.5ZBAOZhibao Technology Inc.QOC 5.5ERIEErie Indemnity CompanyQOC 8.9CRVLCorVel CorporationQOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: AON · QDMI · BRO · TWFG · WTW · NP · LIFE · ZBAO · ERIE · CRVL

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to AJG?

7 companies across all industries closest to AJG’s Quality of Company score of 7.9/10.

TREELendingTree, Inc.QOC 7.9VTMXCorporación Inmobiliaria Vesta, S.A.B. de C.V.QOC 7.9ENVAEnova International, Inc.QOC 7.9VSXYVictorias Secret & Co.QOC 7.9FITBFifth Third BancorpQOC 7.9GOOSCanada Goose Holdings Inc.QOC 7.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: TREE · VTMX · ENVA · VSXY · FITB · GOOS · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.’s Valuation?

What is Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG)'s intrinsic value at $73.48 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $60.24 to $422.68. The Quality of Company score is 7.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AJG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $260.15, 1 of 6 active models suggest AJG may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $73.48, 71.8% below the current price of $260.15 — a consensus view that AJG is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.'s business model in Insurance Brokers.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.9 mean for AJG?

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.'s QOC of 7.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AJG?

CirclFi analyzes AJG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on AJG?

Of the 6 models currently active on AJG, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $422.68 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $60.24. CirclFi's published fair value for AJG is the median of that range, $73.48, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 493% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is AJG a value trap in 2026?

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) has a median fair value of $73.48 — 71.8% below the current price of $260.15 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AJG/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this AJG valuation
  • Financial statements: Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000354190) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for AJG as of ; valuations recomputed .

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